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Clinton-Obama running close as NY primary nears

By David Freedlander, amNewYork Staff Writer

January 31, 2008

The neck-and-neck race for the Democratic nomination is hurtling toward New York next week, and backers of both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are geared up for a photo finish.

Most polls give Hillary the inside shot of grabbing most of the state's nearly 300 delegates, but the Obama team isn't giving an inch.

"They're the home team, and they have most of the establishment behind them," said Rudi Shenk, who is running the state's Obama office. "Our supporters are so energized that I think people will be drawn in."

He points to a map on his computer showing 449 grassroot events in the next five days for Obama in the 100-mile radius around Shenk's offices near Ground Zero. They range from a Saturday night "Barack Your Party" bar canvassing to a "Barks for Barack Sniff-In" that same morning in Prospect Park, where Obama supporters will bring their sign- and sticker-festooned pups on behalf of "the underdog."

Under the arcane New York primary rules, delegates are awarded based on a proportion of the vote per each Congressional district, meaning that Obama could lose the state and still walk home with a trove of delegates.

"We are not looking for a moral victory," Shenk said. "We want to win as many delegates as we can, and so every vote counts here."

Their competition keeps an office near Grand Central Terminal, where likewise a table of volunteers and interns keeps a near constant churn of phone calls going out to likely supporters.

Their main office is a model of order compared to their downtown opponents, neatly printed announcements of official endorsements replacing the haphazard newspaper clippings that decorate the Obama office, and official "Hillary for President" placards instead of hand-painted "Women 4 Barack" signs.

"We are taking nothing for granted," said Frank Rothman, a deputy press secretary. "People here know Hillary and know her accomplishments. It's a matter of reminding people of how serious the challenges are that the next president will face."

On Monday, Clinton will hold a "National Town Hall" in the city that will be simulcast across the country.

The Obama campaign said their candidate's schedule during the next several days remained fluid, as do the polls. Though many surveys in recent days show Clinton with a double-digit lead, the Obama people point to a recent Marist poll that shows the candidates statistically tied in the city as a reason for optimism.

"It's her state, if she can't take it then it will be a disaster for her," said Maurice Carroll, director of Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "I don't think people will be voting for her because she's from Chappaqua. They'll be voting for her because they like her."

The Obama folks are also hoping to keep the race close enough in the waning days that Clinton is forced to spend more time and resources in her home state.

"The problem for Clinton is that if she doesn't win by better than 10 points, the press corps and the tongue wagging class will say, 'Oh, look at that,'" said longtime Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf.

But in a race that has defied expectations at every turn along the way, few were willing to make bold predictions.

"This is one of those, 'Nobody knows anything' kind of situations," said Doug Muzzio, professor of public affairs at Baruch College. "As soon as you think you know you are proven wrong by the next news cycle."