There are few bright spots that emerge from dropping a must-win game in the middle of a playoff race, but in a week where few things have gone right for the New York Rangers, an analysis of what’s working is, at a minimum, hope for next season.
Tuesday night’s 2–1 squeaker at the hands of the league-leading Winnipeg Jets was not like the Rangers’ lopsided collapses over the weekend, where they blew a two-goal lead on Saturday and gave up seven goals on Sunday. New York kept up with the Jets, and had Mika Zibanejad not missed a late open net; this game could’ve ended in a completely different story.
“I thought we played a really hard game,” said Braden Schneider. “I thought we generated a lot. We just got to make sure we’re not giving up those chances that Shesty and Quicky don’t have a chance to save.”
A loss is a loss, however. This one leaves the Rangers two points out of a playoff spot. The club also hasn’t won since March 3, going 0–2–2 since then against playoff-bound teams. Here are the numbers of a Rangers team that has a long way to go, but has reason for optimism.
For this analysis, we’re using the Corsi For % metric. Corsi is defined by Natural Stat Trick as any shot attempt — goals, shots on goals, shots that miss the net and shots that are blocked, and was defined as the best starting point for evaluating players by Natural Stat Trick’s creator Brad Timmins in a 2018 interview with The Athletic.
The Corsi For % (CF%) is the percentage of shots a team is taking in a particular situation — for example, when a certain player is on the ice. A higher CF% means that a team is controlling more shots.
Mika Zibanejad’s renaissance playing with J.T. Miller
It feels like a lifetime ago when Mika Zibanejad was one of the scapegoats of the Rangers’ winter freefall. He had 29 points in 50 games. The club had reportedly offered him in a trade with the Vancouver Canucks in November — ironically for J.T. Miller.
But since Miller was acquired on Jan. 31, and Zibanejad moved to his wing, the latter has 19 points in 15 games, including a power play goal on Tuesday.
“Once we get down there, we put pressure on them,” said Zibanejad. “I think we get some good cycle game going, but obviously not enough just scoring one goal.”
While Miller’s chemistry with Zibanejad hasn’t been enough to turn the Rangers’ season around, the trade has helped both of them individually — Miller struggled in Vancouver this season, with nine goals and 35 points in 40 games, but in New York has seven goals and 16 points in 15 games since the trade.
At even strength, the Rangers carry a CF% of 49.80 when both Miller and Zibanejad are on the ice. With only Zibanejad, and no Miller, they have a CF% of 46.64. When neither player is on, it’s 49.12.
At all strengths, the Rangers’ CF% with both Miller and Zibanejad on the ice jumps to 63.80; when only Zibanejad is on, it’s 50.27. When neither of them is on, it’s 48.16.
Zibanejad and Miller, of course, play on the club’s top power play unit, alongside elite sniper Artemi Panarin and the currently-injured anchor Adam Fox. They’ve often been used as a center-wing pair, with Miller taking the middle and Zibanejad on his right. This has seemed to work better for Zibanejad, who struggled to drive his own line earlier in the season.
Even more telling, the Rangers’ CF% with Zibanejad on the ice has jumped from 51.26 to 55.71 since Miller was acquired and slotted in on his line.
It goes without saying, but a playoff-bound club’s best players need to perform at an elite level. Zibanejad and Miller are two of those guys, and a vital duo for the Rangers for at least the next couple of seasons — they are both 31 and still in the prime of their careers. They just don’t have much time to waste.
The 4th line’s depth scoring potential
They’ve only spent five games together, but the Rangers’ newly-assembled fourth line of Brennan Othmann, Jonny Brodzinski and Matt Rempe has been a statistical gem.
On Tuesday, this trio led the club in CF% when they were on the ice, finishing at 68.75.
This line generated four of the Rangers’ nine shots in the first period — largely due to a persistent, upbeat shift from Othmann, who finished the game tied for the team lead with three shots.
“I thought we had looks,” said Rangers head coach Peter Laviolette. “I thought we had zone time. They blocked some shots as well that didn’t get through. I think we hit the post three times. There was enough there, we just didn’t walk away with anything.
“That goes back to the frustrating part of it. Defensively, we held them down, held their attempts down, zone time down. Did a pretty good job with regard to that and just not being able to get the run support that we need to win.
“I don’t think it was from a lack of not having those opportunities. We just couldn’t get them to bounce.”
As a fourth line that plays limited minutes, their offense has been understandably dry. But their simple, physical forechecking generated lots of chances Tuesday, and has previously been successful.
In the trio’s first game together — the Rangers’ Feb. 25 game against the New York Islanders — they were responsible for three of the Rangers’ five goals. All three were generated by a combination of strong forechecking, shots on goal and a large body — usually Rempe, who is 6-foot-9 — screening Islanders goalie Ilya Sorokin.
Among Rangers forward lines that have played a minimum of 25 minutes together this season, the Othmann-Brodzinski-Rempe trio is ranked fourth in CF%, according to MoneyPuck.
They may not have the offensive firepower of the Rangers’ top six, but this trio has the potential to be a valuable source of depth scoring for the club, and are giving Laviolette reasons to keep them together.
The Rangers’ loss Tuesday further distanced themselves from the playoffs, and given their defensive miscues, it’s unlikely that either of these forward groups will be enough to drag them on a playoff run. But with a core group of players still in their prime, the foundation for a deep forward corps is in the making.
