As polls open on Election Day, people are eager to find out who is winning the 2024 presidential election.
If you’re looking for live election polls, you might find prediction markets to be a more useful way of tracking the ebb and flow of the race.
In fact, many experts believe prediction markets are more accurate than polls.
Here’s how you can use prediction markets, such as Kalshi, as live polls today.
Get $20 free when you sign up and deposit with Kalshi right here.
Live election polls – using prediction markets
- Kamala Harris: 41%
- Donald Trump: 59%
Election forecasts are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change.
Prediction markets work as Election Day indicators using the “wisdom of the crowd.” The notion is that people with skin in the game are incentivized to bet rationally on the election, and collectively, the markets show a dependable snapshot of news by incorporating all types of different information.
Prediction markets have several advantages over traditional polling:
- Real-Time Adjustments: On Election Day, market prices can swing dramatically as early exit poll information or on-the-ground reports come in. Markets quickly react to all of this news, reflecting public sentiment in real-time.
- Money on the Line: Since traders put real money behind their predictions, prediction markets are often seen as potentially more accurate reflections of belief than traditional polls. Participants are incentivized to research and make informed choices.
- Crowdsourcing: Prediction markets draw in participants from all walks of life, including politically engaged individuals, analysts, and casual observers. This diversity helps markets aggregate a broad range of perspectives and knowledge.
Trump vs. Harris predictions
Right now, our version of election polls — Kalshi betting markets — favors Donald Trump to win the White House.
Trump’s odds are up nearly 10% since Sunday but still below last month’s peak of 64%.
Trump is also favored on another prediction market, PredictIt, which has been more friendly to Harris in recent weeks.
It’s early, but things are looking good for the Trump campaign. Will prediction markets prove to be as prescient as live polls? Only time will tell.
Here’s what else prediction markets are saying.
More live Election Day notes
There’s an 82% chance that the candidate who wins Pennsylvania will go on to win the presidential election. Pennsylvania is a key swing state, and markets show that a win there is heavily correlated with a win in the Electoral College. If Harris fails to win the state, many will look back and question her choice for a running mate, in which she selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over popular Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro. Hindsight is 20/20.
Speaking of Pennsylvania, Trump is 57% to win PA, up from 48% over the weekend. It’s a close race and could go either way.
Harris still has a sizeable lead in Michigan, with a 64% chance of winning versus Trump’s 36%.
Despite Trump’s overall surge, the popular vote market has remained relatively stable, giving Harris a 76% chance of winning the most votes, which is up from 67% on Halloween.
So what if markets are right and Trump wins?
Forecasts show a 44% chance that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be nominated to his cabinet and a 33% chance that Elon Musk will.
As for the likelihood of potential Trump policies:
- There’s a 39% chance ‘no tax on tips’ will become law
- There’s a 48% chance he will impose large tariffs in his first year
- And there’s a 51% chance there will be a recession before 2026
How to bet on the election
It’s still not too late to bet on the election and become a prediction market participant. Here’s how to sign up with Kalshi, one of the best election betting sites:
- Click here
- Download the Kalshi app or click on the “Sign up” button if you’re on desktop
- Submit your personal information
- Create a username
- Fund your account using one of the available deposit methods
