Everyone is asking the same question: Who is winning the election right now?
The polls leading up to Election Day showed a virtual coin flip, and the election is clearly undecided as voting takes place throughout Tuesday.
Still, there’s one reliable source that does show who is winning in real-time.
The prediction market industry is showing a strong consensus behind one candidate.
Prediction Markets: Donald Trump is winning the election
Prediction markets like Kalshi, PredictIt, Polymarket, and others all show Donald Trump leading with roughly a 60% chance of winning the election.
Of course, Trump’s lead could change throughout the day as polls close and exit polling info becomes available.
There have been some notable predictions behind Harris, including presidential historian Allan Lichtman, who created the “keys to the White House.”
Statistician Nate Silver gives Harris a very, very slight edge over Trump.
In any case, you can keep track of the election “scoreboard” by following sites like Kalshi.
New Kalshi users also get a $20 sign-up bonus when they sign up here.
Who else is winning the election?
The presidential election isn’t the only race taking place. There are a handful of other elections to keep tabs on— governor races, House races, and Senate races. a
Republicans are 82% to gain control of the Senate, while control for the House is another coin toss.
There is a 41% chance that Republicans will sweep all three branches of government.
Meanwhile, Ted Cruz is up to 82% to retain his Senate seat in Texas.
How to win money on the presidential election
It’s still not too late to win money on the election. For the first time in nearly a century, Americans can actually bet on the presidential election.
You can make your Harris vs. Trump prediction today, and even beyond Election Day if a winner isn’t called or if one of the candidates contests the results.
Here’s how to make your picks with a $20 bonus bet:
- Click here to sign up for a Kalshi account
- Download the app if you’re on your phone or find the “Sign up” button on desktop
- Enter your personal information and confirm a U.S. address. This step should only take a few minutes
- Deposit $100 get a $20 bonus bet once you begin trading; deposit methods include Apple Pay, bank account, cryptocurrency, and wire transfers
- Make your presidential bet on Harris or Trump
Soon Kalshi and other election betting sites will have early markets for the mid-terms and 2028 presidential election.
And it’s not just politics that you can predict.
Kalshi lets you bet on movies, music, business, and much more.
