Pre-season testing is behind us, and the 2023 F1 season is set to kick off this weekend with the Bahrain Grand Prix. So what can we expect for this year?
Coming off of a dominant 2022, Red Bull is near the top of all the F1 odds boards, whether it be for driver Max Verstappen, the reigning champion, or as a team. However, former champion Mercedes is looking to build off a solid second half, and last year’s runner-up, Ferrari, made a change at the top that they hope could propel them to a title. Add to that, improvements by Aston Martin and Alpine and we could be set up for an exciting season of racing.
As we head into opening weekend, it’s time to take a look at Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championship odds for our favorite F1 futures picks.
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2023 F1 Drivers’ Championship odds
| Driver | Team | Odds to win title |
|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | -165 |
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | +450 |
| Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | +500 |
| George Russell | Mercedes | +1600 |
| Carlos Sainz | Ferrari | +1800 |
| Sergio Perez | Red Bull | +2000 |
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | +2800 |
| Lando Norris | McLaren | +15000 |
| Esteban Ocon | Alpine | +25000 |
| Pierre Gasly | Alpine | +40000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | Alfa Romeo | +50000 |
| Guanyu Zhou | Alfa Romeo | +50000 |
| Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | +50000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | Haas | +50000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Haas | +50000 |
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | +50000 |
| Nyck de Vries | AlphaTauri | +50000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | AlphaTauri | +50000 |
| Alex Albon | Williams | +50000 |
| Logan Sargeant | Williams | +100000 |
Odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, and you can find up-to-date odds by clicking here
Favorites
It’s hard to bet against Max Verstappen (-150) even at those odds. He won his second consecutive title in 2022 in the most successful season in F1 history, winning a record 15 races, taking 17 podiums, and ending the season with a 146-point lead on second-place Charles Leclerc. Verstappen is a generational talent but Mercedes and Ferrari should have the cars that can challenge Red Bull this year.
Charles Leclerc (+400) won three races last season, but he really could have won so many more. Strategic and mechanical failure on Ferrari’s end cost him multiple races and so even though Leclerc finished in second, he wasn’t really close. I would wager he’s the only driver on the circuit who can challenge Verstappen, but I can’t make this bet until the odds change a bit. I might wait for a few races to see how the cars shake out before I back anybody to top the reigning champion.
Lewis Hamilton (+500) had a poor year by his standards last year, finishing with five runner-up performances and nine podium finishes. However, much of his poor performance had to do with Mercedes’ issues with car performance. Much has been made about how competitive Hamilton is and how likely he is to push to top Verstappen this year, but I’m not confident in his ability to do that unless we see major improvements from his car.
F1 Driver Props
DraftKings also has a cool bet where you can bet on which driver on a given team will outperform his teammate. For example, Max Verstappen is -1000 to finish higher in the Drivers’ Championship than Sergio Perez, but if you thought Perez would finish on top (don’t bet on that), you would get +500 odds.
Here are a few of my favorite driver props for the 2023 F1 season.
Lewis Hamilton (-175) OVER George Russell
I know Russell topped Hamilton last year, but I can’t see it happening again. He was faster than the younger Russell on most race days in the second half of the season, and I expect the team to still back him in strategic decisions, so I think Hamilton can finish as the clear winner of this pairing.
Pierre Gasly (+110) OVER Esteban Ocon
I know Ocon was with Alpine last year, but I just think Gasly is the better driver. This is the first time he’s been away from Red Bull in his career, and I think he’s out to prove himself. Ocon is the “veteran” here, but he’s never played that role before, so I don’t think the team will feel they have to give him the advantages.
Nico Hulkenberg (+110) OVER Kevin Magnussen
Hulkenberg was let go by Renault at the end of 2019, but he’s performed well when jumping in as a last-minute COVID replacement for Aston Martin and showed that his ability remains. Hulkenberg has shown good speed in the past but hasn’t raced for the best teams. While Haas certainly isn’t a powerhouse, I think “Hulk” has more consistency than his teammate and will come away the victor this season.
F1 Constructors’ Championship odds
| Team | Odds to win the Constructors’ Championship |
|---|---|
| Red Bull | -150 |
| Ferrari | +275 |
| Mercedes | +300 |
| Aston Martin | +5,000 |
| Alpine | +15,000 |
| McLaren | +25,000 |
| Alfa Romeo | +50,000 |
| AlphaTauri | +75,000 |
| Haas | +150,000 |
| Williams | +250,000 |
Favorites
There are only three teams even in contention here and Red Bull (-150) clearly remains above the pack. They won 17 of 22 races last year and won the Constructors Championship by 205 points, which is insane. They were penalized for a cost-cap breach after it was determined they spent more than the $145 million cap last season, but the resulting $7 million fine and “10% reduction in its aerodynamic testing allowance” isn’t enough to remove them from being the clear favorite.
At one point early in the 2022 season it seemed like Ferrari (+275) might have an actual chance, but it sabotaged its own title chances with countless mistakes in the pit and with strategy. This team does have an elite driver pairing and a new team principal after hiring Frederic Vasseur, so they have the pieces to make a run at Red Bull, but everything is going to need to break right.
Mercedes (+300) really improved down the stretch last year but had its streak of eight straight titles broken when it finished in third. However, it’s another team with an elite pairing of drivers and a championship track record, so it’s not crazy to think the German outfit can push to finish second ahead of Ferrari, but I have a hard time thinking it can top Red Bull.
