Gov. Kathy Hochul said Wednesday that there is “zero” chance former President Donald Trump will become the first Republican presidential candidate to win New York in 40 years in the November general election.
The governor made the comments in response to US Rep. Elise Stefanik, a prominent Republican and Trump ally who represents parts of upstate New York. During the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee earlier this month, Stefanik predicted that Trump will be “the first Republican in a generation” to win the Empire State.
Hochul told CNN host Kate Bolduan during a July 31 interview that the chances of a Trump victory in New York are “zero, zero and zero.”
At the same time, she expressed confidence that Vice President Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic Party nominee to replace President Biden after he dropped out of the race days after the Republican Convention ended, will continue the trend of New York voting blue in presidential elections.
“Donald Trump will not win New York State,” said Hochul, the state’s top Democrat. “Kamala Harris and her running mate will win New York state. And something else that’s going to happen in New York State – we’re going to take back the House of Representatives.”
The governor was referring to a handful of swing House seats in New York that Democrats are hoping to flip this November, which the party sees as key to retaking Washington’s lower chamber. Hochul said she has been taking the effort to recapture those districts very seriously.
“Now, I don’t want to take anything for granted or leave it to chance,” she said. “A year ago, I started raising money into the State Democratic party. Building the organization, opening up campaign headquarters – we now have 35 campaign offices in small rural communities, because the battleground for the House of Representatives goes from Long Island up to the rural parts of the Hudson Valley.”
When Biden was at the top of the ticket, Republicans were becoming increasingly confident they would be competitive and possibly even win in New York — a state the president carried by 23 percentage points in 2021.
Earlier in July, before Biden dropped stepped aside, Politico reported on recent public polling that revealed his lead over Trump had narrowed to 8% and two private polls that showed Trump ahead by 1%.
The situation had become so dire that state Democratic leaders were imploring Biden’s campaign to direct more resources toward New York, the outlet reported.
Furthermore, although a Republican presidential candidate has not won New York since Ronald Regan in 1984, the GOP gained momentum in 2022 when it flipped several House seats red. That same year, former Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin came within a few points of upsetting Hochul in a race that was closer than most Democrats would have liked.
Some, however, argued that the Republican victories in 2022 were largely the result of a court-approved redistricting plan that produced Congressional districts more favorable to them. A subsequent court ruling then overturned that redistricting plan, and in February of this year, the Democratic-led state Legislature and Hochul approved a new, slightly-tweaked Congressional district map.
Democrats all over the country seem to have been re-energized by Harris’ likely ascension to the top of the party’s ticket in the wake of Biden bowing out. Recent polling has shown Harris virtually erasing Trump’s lead nationally and in key swing states.
