The Kentucky Derby will be run for the 150th time this Saturday, and a full field of the nation’s best 3-year-old horses will take to the gate for a chance at immortality.
Fierceness is the 5-2 morning line favorite heading into the great race this Saturday. Owned by Queens-native Mike Repole, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez, Fierceness — last year’s juvenile champion — showed a sign of potential greatness last time out in the Florida Derby, winning by 10 lengths and running the fastest Beyer speed figure (110) of any Derby prep winner this year.
But greatness alone isn’t enough to win the Kentucky Derby; a horse also needs the luck of avoiding traffic trouble and a great trip around 19 other horses. Fierceness’ biggest obstacle to victory this Saturday might actually be his far-outside post position: stall 17 in the 20-horse gate, a position from which no horse has won the Kentucky Derby in 40 previous attempts.
Other contenders in the Kentucky Derby include Sierra Leone, the impressive Blue Grass Stakes winner who runs from far back and has one of the best closing kicks of his generation; Catching Freedom, the Louisiana Derby winner with a similar running style; Resilience, winner of the Wood Memorial, the biggest Derby prep race at Aqueduct Racetrack in Queens; and Forever Young, the intriguing Japanese-bred winner of the UAE Derby.
The 150th Kentucky Derby
Saturday, May 4
Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Conditions: 1 1/4 Miles on dirt, 3-year-old colts and geldings
Purse: $5,000,000
Post time: 6:57 p.m. ET
Coverage: NBC/Peacock
The field
How it may shake out
Though Fierceness was able to set the tempo his own way in the Florida Derby, he will not get that same advantage this Saturday. Expect Track Phantom to go to the early lead, with Just a Touch and Fierceness on his heels. Sierra Leone, the second choice, will drop to the back of the field along with Catching Freedom in the first quarter-mile — with Sierra Leone getting an advantage of a ground-saving trip near the rail.
Trip is everything in the Kentucky Derby, and Fierceness’ first quarter-mile from the far-outside 17 post figures to be dicey. Velazquez will need to gun him toward the front early on, and even so, the scramble with several other horses could send him four- or five-wide off the rail into the clubhouse turn.
Two starts back, in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park in February, Fierceness caught a wide trip, and was not able to fire in the last quarter-mile. The far outside post in the Kentucky Derby doesn’t necessarily doom Fierceness here – he’s grown quite a bit in the last 10 weeks – but it does provide some cause for concern.
Into the far turn, Track Freedom will be on or near the lead, Just a Touch will begin to wither, and (depending on how hot the early pace is – say under 47 seconds for the first half mile), Fierceness will be advancing toward the front. So will stalkers like Forever Young, Just Steel, Stronghold, Resilience and Honor Marie.
Further back, jockey Tyler Gaffliaone will be getting Sierra Leone into high gear, looking for seams in a march toward the front – and possibly thinking of the last-to-first, rail-skimming move that three-time Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel made on 2007 winner Street Sense. A similar daring ride could make Sierra Leone unbeatable Saturday.
At the head of the stretch, Sierra Leone will be advancing toward the lead. Track Freedom will be fading, Fierceness will be running hard, trying to ward off the hard charging Catching Freedom and Honor Marie in the center of the track.
If Fierceness shows up the way he did in the Florida Derby, he won’t be beat. But if the first mile of the Kentucky Derby takes a lot out of him, it’ll be hard for him in that last quarter-mile to hold off Sierra Leone — who could become the first horse to win out of the 2 post since eventual Triple Crown winner Affirmed did it in 1978.
