Knicks’ 2023 Playoff Preview & Analysis

You won’t find a better storyline in the first round of the NBA playoffs than the New York Knicks taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are led by Donovan Mitchell, a player the Knicks seemed all but a lock to acquire via trade in the offseason. When the Knicks balked at the asking price, Mitchell was traded to the Cavaliers and he now finds himself with a golden opportunity to prove the Knicks were wrong to let him go.

Or perhaps this is a prime opportunity for New York to show that the roster construction path they chose was the right one. To some, the result of this series will definitely decide which one it is.

“If Donovan Mitchell sends the New York Knicks home, everything you did this season was a waste of time.”

-Stephen A Smith on ESPN radio.
— Knicks Nation (@KnicksNation) April 5, 2023

The Knicks will come into this series with a fair amount of confidence after winning the season series 3-1, but can they get the same result in the playoffs? Below I’ll break down my five keys to the series if the Knicks hope to advance beyond the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2012-13.

How to Watch the Series:

Game 1: Saturday, April 15th at 6 pm ET on ESPN (in Cleveland)
Game 2: Tuesday, April 18th at 7:30 pm on TNT (in Cleveland)
Game 3: Friday, April 21st at 8:30 pm on ABC (in New York)
Game 4: Sunday, April 23rd at 1 pm on ESPN (in New York)

1. Will Donovan Mitchell haunt the Knicks?

As I alluded to in the opener, containing Donovan Mitchell will be crucial for the Knicks. Not just because of the potential narrative that they should have traded for him, but because he’s an All-Star and the best player for Cleveland. This year, Mitchell is averaging 28.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.4 assists on 48.4% shooting and 38.6% from beyond the arc.

During the regular season, Mitchell averaged 31.8 points, 7.5 assists, and 4.8 rebounds in his four games against the Knicks, which means Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau will need to come up with some new strategies for containing “Spida” if he wants his squad to survive the first round?

2. How will Julius Randle look?

You could argue that this is the biggest question of the entire series. Randle has missed the last two weeks with an ankle injury and is expected to play on Saturday in Game 1, but there has been nothing definitive yet, and even if he does play, nobody is sure just how close to 100% he’ll be. The Knicks have proven that they can win games without Randle, but he’s their only All-Star, and missing him for any part of this series could be catastrophic.

On the season, the power forward is averaging 25.1 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, while shooting 45.9% from the field and 34.3% from beyond the arc on a career-high 8.3 three-point attempts per game.

Those three-point attempts often prove crucial for Randle.

A frequent sight at Knicks games is Randle launching first-quarter shots from deep, potentially to get himself into a rhythm and determine whether his shot is falling on a given night or if he needs to attack the paint. When Randle is hitting from deep early, not only does that lead to a more confident outing from him, but the ball movement on the Knicks’ offense tends to be better as Randle feels less inclined to back his man down into the paint.

If Randle is not at 100% and struggles to find the range early, what will that do to the flow of the Knicks’ offense? What will it do to his own confidence? We know Thibodeau is going to leave him out of the court because he usually doesn’t ease players back into their minutes, so a slow start from a hampered Randle could be more harmful to the Knicks than him simply missing the game.

3. Can the Knicks maintain a turnover and free-throw advantage?

The Knicks have the fourth-ranked net offense rating in the NBA despite ranking dead last in assists, 20th in true shooting percentage, and 20th in effective field goal percentage. That’s pretty hard to do.

One of the reasons New York is able to pull it off is because they attempt the third-most free throws per game in the NBA (25.5 per game), thanks in large part to Jalen Brunson. It’s a bit of quantity over quality for them since they also rank 22nd in the league, making just 76.1% of their shots from the charity stripe. However, if the Knicks are able to keep getting to the line, it will help to take some pressure off of an offense that isn’t tremendous at shooting the basketball.

The other reason the Knicks have been so effective on offense is that they don’t turn the ball over much. Yet another skill that can be tied directly to the addition of Brunson. The Knicks are fourth-best in the NBA with just 13.0 turnovers per game; however, they did struggle a bit against Cleveland in the regular season.

In the four games against the Cavaliers during the regular season, the Knicks turned the ball over 15.5 times per game. If they want to escape the series with a win, they are going to need to maintain possession.

4. Who wins the rebound battle?

Another reason that the Knicks have been a strong offensive team that year is that they rank third in the NBA in offensive rebounds per game with 12.6 and 2nd in offensive rebounding rate at 31.8%. That’s good news against a Cleveland team that despite their size, ranks 25th in the NBA with 31.4 defensive rebounds per game and ranks 20th by allowing their opponents to grab offensive rebounds at a 28.5% rate.

If the Knicks are able to consistently get second chances on the interior with fierce rebounders like Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Josh Hart then their offense will be tough to stop.

5. Will Tom Thibodeau expand his rotation?

New York has proven time and time again this year that they have a pretty deep roster. Immanuel Quickley has emerged as the leading candidate to win 6th Man of the Year, Hartenstein has grown into an elite backup center, and Obi Toppin averaged 24.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists without Randle in April. That’s without even considering the elite defense the team gets from Miles McBride when he’s in the game.

With all of that taken into consideration, will Thibodeau rely on his bench which is a major advantage over a Cavs team that is not particularly deep? If Randle is not 100% or RJ Barrett has one of his poor decision-making games, will Thibodeau give more minutes to Toppin and Hart, or will he let the starters ride? If Quentin Grimes struggles to contain Mitchell, will McBride be given a chance to give the team a few good minutes?

How Thibodeau handles those decisions could go a long way to determining whether or not the Knicks will see the second round of the playoffs for the first time in the last decade.

Prediction: Knicks in 7

At the end of the day, I think this Knicks team is deep enough to grind out a few wins on the road in Cleveland against a Cavaliers team that they match up well against.

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