After reviewing the first 14 entrants into the Kentucky Derby, we now shift our attention to six more horses who qualified on points through their prep race performances – and a few others currently hoping for a defection to make the field.

One such defection occurred on Sunday, when trainer Chad Brown announced that Blazing Sevens – who had been 17th in points with 46 – will skip the Kentucky Derby and point to the Preakness Stakes. That moved Jace’s Road, who has 45 points, into the Kentucky Derby field.

Then on Thursday, Wild on Ice — who sat 15th in the Road to the Kentucky Derby standings after his Sunland Park Derby win — suffered a catastrophic injury while training at Churchill Downs, and had to be euthanized. The tragedy created a vacancy in the Kentucky Derby starting gate that will now be filled by Skinner, who has 45 points. 

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the chances of the Kentucky Derby contenders who ranked 15-20 in points, and some possible runners still on the outside looking in.

Top 14 (with our odds)

1. Forte 3-1

2. Practical Move 8-1

3. Angel of Empire 5-1

4. Tapit Trice 5-1

5. Two Phil’s 10-1

6. Lord Miles 35-1

7. Derma Sotogake 20-1

8. Kingsbarns 12-1

9. Raise Cain 40-1

10. Rocket Can 50-1

11. Hit Show 25-1

12. Confidence Game 30-1

13. Verifying 15-1

14. Sun Thunder 50-1

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15. Mage (50 points) 

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Best Performance: 2nd in the Florida Derby
Our odds: 15-1

To Mage’s credit, his Florida Derby was a solid performance that didn’t look possible after an anemic fourth-place effort last out in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He got the extra sixteenth of a mile and ran gamely, only to be surpassed in the final strides by Forte, who ran a race that he had every reason to lose. Though he ran from a stalking position in the Fountain of Youth, Mage switched to running from the back of the field in the Florida Derby, and the ability to make a sustained rally around the far turn seemed to make him run better. If he gets a similar ride in the Kentucky Derby, he’s got a serious chance to be there at the finish – and maybe upset the field. Don’t overlook him.

16. Disarm (46) 

Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Best Performance: 2nd Louisiana Derby
Our odds: 25-1

To clinch a Kentucky Derby berth, Asmussen ran Disarm three weeks after his Louisiana Derby effort in the Lexington Stakes, needing a top three finish in the very last prep race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Disarm just got the third-spot in the 1 1/16 Miles race and got his spot in the Derby starting gate. But he ran faster in the Lexington, and showed again that he’s a horse who relishes longer distances. Disarm hasn’t won a race since breaking his maiden at Saratoga last summer, but his late running style and developing speed make him a serious threat in the Kentucky Derby. And then there’s the karma factor, if you believe in that sort of thing; Asmussen, Rosario and Disarm’s owner, Winchell Thoroughbreds, were the same connections behind Epicenter, last year’s three-year-old champ who was denied a Kentucky Derby win by Rich Strike at 81-1 odds. Can they turn the tables on the field this time? It’s an intriguing possibility.

17. Reincarnate (45) 

Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: John Velazquez
Biggest Win: Sham Stakes
Our odds: 35-1

I was a huge fan of Reincarnate after the Rebel Stakes where he got a terrible trip, was knocked off his game and still managed to finish third. He looked like a high-quality horse who would find a way to win the Arkansas Derby next out. But he laid an egg and finished a well-beaten third behind Angel of Empire in that race, and looked like a horse going in the wrong direction on the way to Louisville. Reincarnate makes the field based on those performances and his 10-point Sham Stakes win in January at Santa Anita. But if I were Yakteen, I’d consider running him in the one-turn Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. It’s not the Run for the Roses, but it’s a race that Reincarnate might actually win.

18. Jace’s Road (45)

Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Best Performance: 3rd Louisiana Derby
Our Odds: 30-1

Jace’s Road gives Cox his third Kentucky Derby hopeful behind Angel of Empire and Hit Show, but he’s a giant question mark coming into the big race. He looked like a horse on the move after an impressive win in the Gun Runner Stakes at the Fair Grounds back in December as a two-year-old. But he followed that effort up with a fifth-place dud in the Southwest Stakes before his Louisiana Derby effort. And though he improved, Jace’s Road didn’t have enough in the tank of the Louisiana Derby to catch Kingsbarns or the eventual second-place finisher Disarm. The extra sixteenth of a mile in the Kentucky Derby probably won’t do him any favors. Yet if he goes to the lead and engages Kingbarns and another front-runner like Derma Sotogake in a speed duel up front, that would set the stage well for the race’s closers.

19. Skinner (45 points) 

Trainer: John Sheriffs
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Best Performance: 3rd Santa Anita Derby
Our odds: 18-1

Two third-place finishes in the last two Kentucky Derby preps in California helped get Skinner into the Kentucky Derby picture, and he looked his best in defeat in the Santa Anita Derby. He has a great closing style and steadily advanced through the field, though Espinoza may have moved him a tad too early on the turn. Though he looked poised to blow by the field at the quarter-pole, he flattened out a bit as Practical Move and Mandarin Hero moved forward. But Skinner re-rallied at the eighth pole and made it very close at the end, losing by about a half-length. Skinner will get an extra furlong in the Kentucky Derby, which he should definitely relish. Is he good enough to beat the likes of Forte and turn the tables on Practical Move? He just might be. Another good pick for your exotics.

20. Continuar (qualified via races in Japan) 

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Best Performance: 3rd UAE Derby
Our Odds: 75-1

Continuar made the Kentucky Derby field through an automatic berth awarded for prep races run in Japan as part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby series. However, in two international races for three-year-olds, he wasn’t much of a factor – finishing fifth in the Saudi Derby in February and then third in the UAE Derby in Dubai in March, well-beaten by Derma Sotogake in the latter start. He’s a couple of notches below the winner, in my opinion, and it’s hard to imagine that Continuar will be the one to finally get Japan on the Kentucky Derby board.

On the bubble

21. Cyclone Mischief (45)

Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: TBA
Best Performance: 3rd Fountain of Youth Stakes
Our odds (if he runs): 50-1

Cyclone Mischief finished just well enough to get within sniffing distance of the Kentucky Derby starting gate, but his performances in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby didn’t provide any sign that he’s worthy of actually being in the field. Another horse who should be pointed to an undercard allowance.

22. Major Dude (40)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: TBA
Best Performance: 2nd Jeff Ruby Steaks (sic)
Our odds (if he runs): 30-1

After finding some modest success on the turf, Pletcher took a gamble at a Kentucky Derby berth by running Major Dude in the Jeff Ruby Steaks, where he came up short to Two Phil’s. Major Dude has gained speed with every start, and he has a dirt pedigree. Still, if he makes the field, he’ll be among horses of a higher caliber. His best chance at a win on Derby Day would be in the American Turf Stakes on the undercard.

23. Mandarin Hero (40) 

Trainer: Terunobu Fujita
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
Best Performance: 2nd Santa Anita Derby
Our odds (if he runs): 10-1

Here is the most intriguing of bubble horses, as he came up just short against Practical Move in his first and only start stateside thus far. Mandarin Hero might even be better than his Japanese compatriot in Derma Sotogake in terms of speed and stamina. He’ll need a lot of help to make the Derby field, however, with two horses ahead of him in the point standings. Right now, he looks like a real threat for the Preakness Stakes. But if the stars align and Mandarin Hero makes the Derby field, watch out.