With no “superhorses” emerging from the Triple Crown series as a clear-cut champion of their generation, the summer stakes season will ultimately prove pivotal in the quest for the 3-year-old title this year.
After three great classics, six horses who took part in at least one leg of the Triple Crown are emerging as key contenders for the 3-year-old championship, and possibly Horse of the Year honors should they impress in the second half of the year.
These horses already have great wins under their belts, and will be looking to further their resumes in major races coming up this summer such as the Haskell Stakes at Monmouth, the Travers Stakes at Saratoga and the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing.
Let’s take a look at six thoroughbreds whom we believe have the best chance of capturing the 3-year-old championship, and their odds…
1.) Forte
Last race: 2nd Belmont Stakes
Previous wins: Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth Stakes
Trainer: Todd Pletcher/Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Our odds: 3-1
He was scratched the morning of the Kentucky Derby with a foot bruise, an injury that also kept him out of the Preakness Stakes, and followed up with a second-place effort in the Belmont Stakes. So why are we giving him favoritism in the 3-year-old championship race? Consider that the Belmont was Forte’s first performance off a nine-week layoff dating back to a gutsy Florida Derby victory. He finished well ahead of National Treasure, the Preakness champion, and was only beaten by the winner Arcangelo by 3 lengths. Not a bad first start back off a long break, especially considering the grueling nature of the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes. Horse Racing Nation has Forte as possible for either the July 22 Haskell or the July 29 Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga. A win in either race will make him the prohibitive Travers Stakes favorite — and should he win that contest, he may just wrap up the championship itself.
2.) Arcangelo
Last race: 1st Belmont Stakes
Previous win: Peter Pan Stakes
Trainer: Jena Antonucci/Jockey: Javier Castellano
Our odds: 7-2
Arcangelo has absolutely blossomed into a championship horse in just a short amount of time. Keep in mind, he was running in maiden races at Gulfstream Park as recently as April. But after breaking his maiden and winning the Peter Pan Stakes, Arcangelo turned in a resounding effort in the Belmont Stakes, making Antonucci the first female trainer ever to win a Triple Crown race. Together, the Arcangelo-Antonucci tandem makes for one of the great horse racing stories of the year, and they’re easy to root for. Now comes the real test — whether they can sustain that success through the summer, and there’s no reason to think that they can’t. Arcangelo is probable for the Travers Stakes on Aug. 26 as his next start, and he’ll be looking to replicate the success of his sire, Arrogate, who won the race in record time by 11 lengths in 2016. Should history repeat itself, Arcangelo should be the 3-year-old champion.
3.) Mage
Last race: 3rd Preakness Stakes
Previous win: Kentucky Derby
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado/Jockey: Javier Castellano
Our odds: 5-1
Give Mage and his connections credit for their valiant effort in the Preakness Stakes just two weeks off their stunning Kentucky Derby triumph. Mage had everything against him in the Preakness, mainly the lack of front-running speed — something which worked clearly to National Treasure’s benefit. Still, he found a way to hit the board, and he’s got plenty of chances to reach a winner’s circle again in a grade 1 race this summer. Though he’s currently aiming for the Travers Stakes, his connections indicate he may use the Haskell Stakes as a prep off a two-month layoff. Castellano will likely ride him if he runs in the Haskell, but if Arcangelo also shows up in the Travers, who’s he going to go with? In any event, Mage can boost his 3-year-old championship hopes with a win in the Travers alone.
4.) National Treasure
Last race: 4th Belmont Stakes
Previous win: Preakness Stakes
Trainer: Bob Baffert/Jockey: John Velazquez
Our odds: 8-1
National Treasure’s best shot at winning the Belmont Stakes was a wire to wire effort much like his Preakness triumph, and Velazquez was wise to go to the lead early. But the reality was that National Treasure could not get the full 1 1/2 mile distance of the Triple Crown’s third leg. Nevertheless, the 10-furlong Travers is not out of his reach, and one would expect Baffert to point him to the Midsummer Derby if all goes well. Winning the Travers would set him up well for the 3-year-old title, but to clinch, he’d probably need to win the Pennsylvania Derby in late September and/or the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November.
5.) Disarm
Last race: 1st Matt Winn Stakes
Previous effort: 4th Kentucky Derby
Trainer: Steve Asmussen/Jockey: Joel Rosario
Our odds: 10-1
In seven career starts, Disarm has finished in the money six times — the lone time he ran off the board was in the Kentucky Derby. That was his third race in six weeks, and after a brief break, Asmussen got Disarm back in the winner’s circle with a solid victory over a sloppy Ellis Park track in the Matt Winn Stakes on June 11. The win seemed to demonstrate a faster turn of foot for Disarm than his previous starts, as he earned a solid 102 Beyer speed figure in that contest. Skeptics may wonder if that effort was aided by the slop, and Disarm will have to answer that in his next start — which could be in the Jim Dandy Stakes. He’ll need to run the table from this point forward — sweeping the Jim Dandy and the Travers Stakes, basically — in order to be considered for the 3-year-old championship.
6.) Two Phil’s
Last race: 2nd Kentucky Derby (entered in June 24 Ohio Derby)
Previous win: Jeff Ruby Steaks (sic)
Trainer: Larry Rivetti/Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Our odds: 20-1
The odds of Two Phil’s winning the 3-year-old title will go down significantly if he wins Saturday’s Ohio Derby in a dominant style. He’s a 6-5 morning line favorite in the 1 1/8 miles contest at Thistledown, and his only main threat in the race is Wood Memorial upset winner Lord Miles, who scratched ahead of the Kentucky Derby. Two Phil’s has plenty of late-running speed, which almost carried him to victory on Derby Day. The resumé still comes up a little light, having only won in Grade 2 company before. But if he wins the Ohio Derby and comes back to win two of either the Haskell, Travers or Pennsylvania Derby, Two Phil’s will be set up well to become 3-year-old champion.
