Former city Comptroller Scott Stringer would win the ranked-choice Democratic primary for mayor if it were held today, according to new polling released by his campaign.
However, if and when former Gov. Andrew Cuomo jumps into the race, the poll of 1,000 New York City Democrats found that he, and not Stringer, would handily win.
The poll found that Stringer, who unsuccessfully ran for mayor in 2021, would lead the current field, with 18% of those surveyed ranking him number one out of five.
Mayor Eric Adams would follow Stringer, with 17% of voters ranking him as their first choice. The poll has the other major candidates in the race, including current city Comptroller Brad Lander and state Sen. Jessica Ramos (D-Queens), in the single digits.
“In the current field of announced candidates, running candidates, Scott leads the field,” said Stringer’s pollster Evan Roth Smith during a virtual briefing with reporters on Friday.
Adams’ campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Some details from the survey were first reported by the New York Post earlier this week.
Under ranked-choice, voters can rank up to five candidates who then enter instant runoff elections until one candidate comes out with over 50%. At the end of each round, the lowest vote-getter is dropped from consideration and their votes go to whomever was put second on ballots cast for them.
According to the poll, Stringer would win with 61% in the sixth round of the ranked-choice instant runoff contest, with Adams coming in second at 39%.
“If the election were today…Scott Stringer would be elected the next mayor of New York City,” Roth Smith said.
Roth Smith said Stringer benefits both from his “strong core” supporters who would rank him number one and “broad appeal across the electorate,” which is important in ranked-choice contests.
However, he said the contest is likely to see a major shakeup if Cuomo jumps in.
The poll indicates that Cuomo would dominate the field if he entered the primary. He has been toying with the idea of running for over a year, but has yet to formally announce a bid — though Politico reported earlier this month that he is eyeing a February launch.
The state’s former top executive, who resigned from the governorship in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations, which he denies, would capture 33% of first-choice votes, according to the poll. In that scenario, Stringer would come in second with 13% and Adams in third with 11%.
Cuomo would go on to win the ranked-choice contest in the seventh round of instant runoffs with 67% of the vote, the analysis found. Stringer would come in second with 33% and Adams would be eliminated in the 6th round with 18%.
But Stringer’s campaign maintains not only that he can close the gap and surpass Cuomo, but that he is the only candidate in the field who can do so.
They argue that voters’ relatively positive feelings about Stringer, found in the poll, combined with his lower name recognition compared to Cuomo, give him room to grow and surpass the former governor. The survey tested Stringer’s message with voters and found that once they heard it, he takes the lead and surpasses Cuomo by 20%.
“We see this responsiveness to the Stringer messaging, his numbers go way up and Cuomo’s support is soft, as we suspect and intend to take full advantage of,” Roth Smith said.
Rich Azzopardi, Cuomo’s spokesperson, declined to comment on the poll.
“This is all still premature, but Andrew Cuomo will always be a Queens boy who loves New York and will do anything he can to help it succeed,” Azzopardi said.
Some of the other candidates who ranked in the single digits in Stringer’s poll waved away its findings.
Lander’s campaign spokesperson, Dora Spekec, slammed Stringer over the poll, putting him behind Cuomo.
“Scott Stringer ran an entire mayor’s race three years ago that saturated the airwaves in the biggest media market in the world, and his own poll shows it did him no good,” Spekec said. “This is honestly sad.”
Lander’s campaign says it has raised more money than the rest of the primary field when including public matching funds that it has or expects to receive, following the latest campaign finance filings earlier this week.
Ramos, in a statement, charged the “Latino vote is being severely undercounted” and the “race is still wide open.”
