Potential mass deportations of undocumented individuals could ripple through New York City’s economy if Donald Trump carries out his presidential campaign promise for such expulsions, according to financial experts.
A report from the Fiscal Policy Institute and the Immigration Research Initiative weighed the potential economic and fiscal fallout following anticipated policies from the Trump administration, which has signaled its intention to escalate enforcement actions aimed at removing immigrants from New York’s communities, workplaces, and families.
This forced exodus has caused widespread concern for undocumented immigrants, those on temporary visas, those with temporary protected status, asylum seekers and DACA recipients — all of whom may find their statuses potentially compromised.
New York city is home to approximately 4.5 million immigrants, 1.8 million of whom are noncitizens; an estimated 670,000 individuals are undocumented. In 2022, undocumented immigrants contributed approximately $3.1 billion in state and local taxes.
Team members with the Immigration Research Initiative — including David Dyssegaard Kallick, director of the program — say the removal of these individuals from the workforce poses severe threats to the state’s economy, particularly in essential sectors such as hospitality, healthcare, construction, and agriculture.
“Immigrants are a vital part of New York, so it is no surprise to see the drastic impact the proposed Trump Administration policies will have on our state,” Kallick said. “Heartbreaking stories are already emerging of immigrants being separated from their families and their communities, and those separations are going to have negative consequences for all of us.”
Hospitality, child care, construction impacts
The report highlights the potential devastation across various industries, including restaurants, which employ an estimated 42,300 undocumented immigrants, 51,200 child or home care workers, and 48,500 construction workers.
The effects aren’t limited to urban centers, but they could also negatively impact upstate cities.
According to the report, stopping the new flow of refugees to upstate cities will have a direct impact on population rebound in these areas.
“State and City leadership must oppose the implementation of deportation policies that could have a devastating impact on New York’s immigrant communities and its economy,” said Nathan Gusdorf, director of the Fiscal Policy Institute. “In addition to their human cost, these policies could remove hundreds of thousands of immigrants from the workforce, causing New Yorkers to lose access to essential services, including child care and home care, and pushing up the cost of construction during a historic housing shortage.”
In a related development, the New York Working Families Party previously expressed strong disapproval of Mayor Eric Adams’ December 2024 meeting with the Trump Administration’s “border czar,” Tom Homan. Co-Directors Jasmine Gripper and Ana María Archila criticized the meeting as “deeply disturbing and irresponsible,” stating, “New Yorkers deserve a mayor who will fight to protect them, not harm them for political gain.”
They emphasized the need for collaborative community efforts to protect immigrant rights in the face of federal threats.
Murad Awawdeh, president and CEO, New York Immigration Coalition emphasized the hurtful effects these deportations would cause.
“This report highlights, what we know has been true for generations—immigrants are the backbone of New York’s economy, playing a vital role in building and revitalizing our local communities, whether as childcare providers, construction workers, teachers, farm workers, and more,” Awawdeh told amNewYork Metro. “Deporting our immigrant neighbors would have devastating consequences, disrupting the availability and affordability of basic necessities like food, housing, and care. By protecting New York’s workforce we can ensure the health of New York’s economy while ensuring that every New York family can continue to contribute to their communities and build stable, fulfilling lives.”
In previous statements, Mayor Adams has said he would cooperate with the Trump administration on kicking out undocumented individuals convicted of violent crime, but that he would seek to protect all immigrants.
“I’ve been very clear on this, and it’s not going to change,” Adams said, as previously reported by amNewYork Metro. “We want to bring down the anxiety. We want our immigrants to know that this is the city of immigrants; this is the country of immigrants. It’s imperative that you go to school, use the hospital service, use the police services.”
