It’s been a whirlwind 2022 for New York’s transit system. The events of the past year set up what should be an interesting 2023, so journey with us past the end of the line as we look ahead to what’s in store for how New Yorkers move over the next 365 days.
COVID Recovery, Fiscal Uncertainty
Arguably the defining story for mass transit this past year was the continued recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, which decimated the system when it hit the city in 2020. Recovery has been slow and unsteady: New Yorkers have mostly shed their masks on the train and bus, but riders have not returned in the numbers expected and hoped for by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority.
As a result, the MTA is facing down a fiscal crisis, and it has tentatively approved both major spending cuts and a fare hike on the subway and bus. The MTA will deliberate and finalize its proposed fare increase in the coming months, potentially bringing the cost of a swipe or tap as high as $2.90 this year and $3.05 by 2025.
But those numbers are anything but final and are dependent on a litany of factors. Most notable among them is how city, state, and federal lawmakers ultimately bolster the MTA’s revenue streams, or if they happen at all. Governor Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams have pledged to support a “sustainable operating budget model” for the MTA, but Albany’s budget process is legendary for its jockeying, and transit riders won’t know for sure what the future holds until the dotted line is signed.
Big Infrastructure Projects
The MTA finally conceded in December that it would not meet its long-term commitment to finish the $11 billion East Side Access megaproject. But at last, the new Grand Central Madison terminal is set to open early in 2023, bringing Long Island Rail Road trains to the east side of Manhattan and increasing the railroad’s service capacity by 40%.
Expect to see progress updates this year on Governor Hochul’s $7 billion Penn Station megaproject, which aims to beautify the reviled west side train station. The proposal has been controversial, involving enormous tax breaks for a major Manhattan real estate developer (and campaign contributor), the construction of several new office towers, and the potential demolition of an entire block in Midtown.
With reconstruction at LaGuardia Airport in the history books, revamp work at John F. Kennedy International will continue this year as New York looks to change the image of its airports.
Crime and Safety
2022 saw a number of grisly, high-profile crimes in the transit system, putting the city on edge and weighing heavily on the midterm elections.
Officials have surged police presence in the system in an effort to establish “omnipresence” and allay New Yorkers’ fears, while the Adams administration has embarked on a controversial policy to involuntarily commit people with severe mental illness, on the streets and in the subways, to treatment. It’s anyone’s guess what impact these measures will have on transit crime.
Redesign, Redesign, Redesign
Last year saw the implementation of a major redesign to bus routes in the Bronx, aiming to speed up the jitneys and make the system more reliable for riders. The MTA is in the midst of community engagement for similar redesigns in Queens, where a final plan is expected sometime this year, and Brooklyn, where honchos presented a first draft in December.
Speaking of redesigns, expect more big street redesign proposals from the Adams administration, which has leaned heavily into remaking roadways to improve traffic safety and reduce auto congestion. The last point doesn’t apply to the maligned, crumbling Brooklyn-Queens Expressway, which might return to a 6 lane highway; community engagement is ongoing, so expect a final plan sometime this year.
