An appeals court in New York ordered state leaders to redraw the congressional map on Thursday — which could prove to be a big boon for Democrats nationwide, and a major setback for Republicans seeking to hold the House next year.
The ruling now opens the door for district lines across the Empire State’s 26 congressional districts to be shifted away from those in the court-drawn map adopted in 2022 after Republicans successfully challenged the Democratic-led legislature’s map.
Those changes helped enable Republicans to gain five New York Congressional seats (including two on Long Island) in the November 2022 general election — victories that helped give the GOP control of the House, and put Kevin McCarthy in the speaker’s chair.
Republicans are expected to appeal Thursday’s decision, which, if it were to stand, would toss out the court-drawn maps, and hand power back to the state’s redistricting commission to create a new map.
That commission is ultimately subservient to the state legislature, which is controlled by a hefty majority of elected Democrats.
Any challenges to the ruling will be heard by the Court of Appeals, which had previously thrown out the map drawn by the redistricting commission, and instituted a court-drawn map for the last election.
Thursday’s decision hinged on the idea that the court-drawn map was only a temporary fix, put in place because the election was quickly approaching by the time the district lines were scrapped.
Now, the process will go back into the hands of the redistricting commission for another chance to draw the map, pending further court proceedings.
As it stands, though, Democrats are celebrating.
“The Appellate Division decision confirms that the New York State Constitution requires congressional district lines be drawn by an independent redistricting commission,” said Brooklyn Congress Member and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. “In contrast, the current congressional map was drawn by an unelected, out-of-town Special Master appointed by an extreme right-wing judge, who himself was handpicked by partisan political operatives.”
Jeffries would likely be elected speaker of the House if Democrats win back control of the chamber.
The ramifications of the court’s decision
On a local level, the decision could change which district New Yorkers find themselves in, and consequently who represents them in the lower chamber in Washington D.C.
The more far-reaching result, however, is that the state could see a new map that allows the Democratic Party to capture more seats — and potentially control of the chamber.
After the 2022 elections, Republicans won 222 seats out of the 435 total posts in the House of Representatives, while Democrats fell to the minority with 212.
With 218 seats needed to win control of the legislative body, Democrats fell short by just 6.
In New York State, operating under the lines drawn by the court, Democrats won 15 seats, while Republicans won 11. Many political observers noted that, if the lines had been drawn differently, Democrats could have potentially taken home several more victories — perhaps even enough to win a majority in the chamber.
Of course, if the ruling stands, and the redistricting commission is able to produce a new map that is legally sufficient to the courts, that would not change the current makeup of congress, and would only would only take effect in 2024, when all districts nationwide are up for a new election.
Still, the chance to make gains in 2024 and beyond has Democrats salivating.
Republicans, meanwhile, are furious.
“When Democrats can’t compete, they cheat,” said Upstate New York Congress Member Elise Stefanik and NYGOP Chair Ed Cox in a joint statement. “Their illegal gerrymander violated the State Constitution and bucked the will of the voters. The Court of Appeals must overturn this ruling, or Democrats will gerrymander the map to target political opponents and protect political allies — all to the People’s detriment.”
It should be noted that Republican-led legislatures in other states have also faced legal challenges from Democrats to gerrymandered Congressional redistricting plans.
Nevertheless, the New York redistricting battle will continue, with the Court of Appeals likely having the final say once more — though, there is a new twist this time around.
Janet DiFiore previously served as the chief judge of the 7-member Court of Appeals, and wrote the majority opinion striking down the previous map, saying it illegally advantaged Democrats.
But in 2022, DiFiore stepped down from her post, and was replaced as chief judge by Rowan D. Wilson, who is seen as more liberal, and potentially more likely to both uphold Thursday’s ruling throwing out the 2022 map, and also green-light a map favorable to Democrats.
