2023 NBA Championship Odds and Playoff Update

The postseason kicked off on Tuesday night with the play-in tournament, and despite what many pre-season predictions believed, both the Knicks and Nets avoided the early games and qualified directly for the playoffs.

But does that make them NBA title contenders?

Coming into the season, the Nets were tied with the Warriors and Clippers for the third-best odds at +700, while the Knicks were nowhere to be found. However, much has changed in recent months and now both teams find themselves having lost the confidence of the Vegas sportsbooks. Could either of them make for a good longshot bet or should we be looking elsewhere for our value? Let’s dive in with our odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

NBA Championship Odds

Team	Current Odds
Milwaukee Bucks	+235
Boston Celtics	+320
Phoenix Suns	+425
Philadelphia 76ers	+900
Golden State Warriors	+950
Denver Nuggets	+1100
Los Angeles Lakers	+1800
Memphis Grizzlies	+2000
Los Angeles Clippers	+4000
Cleveland Cavaliers	+4000
Sacramento Kings	+8000
New York Knicks	+14000
Brooklyn Nets	+60000

Favorites

The Celtics (+320) spent much of the season as the betting favorite which makes sense since they finished the season with the second-best net rating on both offense and defense and have the league’s best point differential.

However, it won’t be an easy path for them. They caught a bit of a break with the Heat losing in the play-in game on Tuesday night since Jimmy Butler and company are always a tough out. If Boston can beat the Hawks, they would likely have to face the 76ers and potential MVP Joel Embiid. The Celtics did go 5-2 in the regular season against the Bucks and 76ers, but their path to the title will be a tough one.

The Bucks (+235) have the best record in the NBA and have Giannis Antetokoumpo, who is possibly the NBA’s best player. The Bucks have championship experience after their 2021 title, and this team is possibly deeper, which makes it hard to envision anybody beating them four times in a series.

However, the Bucks are also behind the Celtics, Cavs, and 76ers in Net Rating. They are 15th in true shooting percentage, 15th in offensive net rating, and 23rd in assist-to-turnover ratio, which means they will be heavily relying on their defense in order to win a title. It’s certainly feasible, but if they have to keep up with an elite offense, they might not be able to win a series.

The Phoenix Suns (+425) are another sneaky contender thanks to the addition of Kevin Durant. While the Suns haven’t quite clicked, going just 12-8 in their last 20 games, it’s hard to deny that a team with Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and DeAndre Ayton is an NBA title contender. The Suns will have to get past the Clippers in the first round, but if there is one team that can take down Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, it’s the Suns with all their stars clicking.

Contenders

It’s possible that Philadelphia (+900) is the best value at their current odds. They shouldn’t have too much trouble handling a favorable first-round matchup against this new version of the Brooklyn Nets, which would then mean a second-round matchup against Boston. The 76ers have never been to a conference finals with Embiid, but the potential MVP is playing the best basketball of his career and the 76ers are the best team in the NBA over the last 20 games of the season.

It’s a bit wild to see Denver (+1100) with such low odds despite being the West’s top seed and coming into the playoffs with a full supporting cast for the first time since the bubble. While Denver is limping into the postseason, they have the West’s second-best net rating behind the Grizzlies and the third-best true shooting percentage in the entire league. If you think the Nuggets are a good bet to make the NBA Finals then +1100 is decent odds for one of the final two teams remaining.

Other Best Bets

Taking the Grizzlies at +700 to win the West makes some sense. They’re the number two seed and have the best net rating in the Western Conference. They’ll miss Steven Adams, who is out for the rest of the year, but this is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and the Western Conference is a pretty wide-open field.

Could the Knicks +4000 really make it out of the Eastern Conference? They went 3-1 during the regular season against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who they face in the first round, and 3-1 against the Celtics, who they could meet in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, they lost all three games against the Bucks this year, so getting out of the second round could be a massive challenge and would make it hard to bet on the Knicks to do so. Still, you can bet on them +160 to beat the Cavs, which feels feasible.