David Wright’s Hall of Fame Case: Complete Analysis

Injuries robbed baseball and the New York Mets of witnessing David Wright’s full career — and likely much consideration up in Cooperstown, too.

Following the election of Scott Rolen on Tuesday night, the former third baseman and Mets captain will make his debut on the Baseball Hall of Fame’s Class of 2024 ballot where it’s considered a longshot that he gets the necessary 75% approval of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) to get in.

To (unfairly) put, he simply doesn’t have the overall body of work to garner the consideration needed to make a legitimate push — a brilliant start to his career was derailed by a stress fracture in his back suffered in 2011 that ultimately led to the diagnosis of spinal stenosis, three surgeries over a two-year stretch, more than half a decade of attempting to will his team through ceaseless pain, appearing in just 44.8% of his team’s games over an eight-year stretch from 2011-2018, and an all-too-early, obligatory retirement five years ago.

His career WAR of 49.2 would be the second-lowest for a Hall-of-Fame position player appearing in a game after 1980 (Harold Baines, 38.8). His JAWS — developed by Jay Jaffe that contains a combination of career and seven-year peak WARs — of 44.3 is 11.4 points under the average mark for Hall of Fame third basemen. For reference, Rolen’s JAWS was 56.9; just above the average for Hall-of-Fame third basemen of 55.6.

Bill James, who developed a 0-100 grading scale known as the Hall of Fame value standard — with 50 being the score for an average Hall of Famer — and is featured on Baseball Reference, has administered a score of 36 to Wright.

If only he had stayed healthy.

Over his first six full seasons in the majors beginning from his first campaign of at least 502 plate appearances from 2005-2010 (not counting his 69-game debut in 2004), Wright was one of the elite third basemen in Major League Baseball. He slashed .306/.387/.515 (.902 OPS) with 155 home runs and 624 RBI. That’s an average of 26 home runs and 104 RBI per season.

Compare that to the 14 Hall-of-Fame third basemen that played in MLB and Wright’s start as a pro is comparable to most and even better than some. For stat-keeping purposes, the first season of the first six-full-season stretch contained in the graph below must begin with the player’s first year that featured at least 502 plate appearances.

David Wright vs. Hall of Fame 3rd Basemen: First 6 Full Seasons

Player	Games Played (Seasons)	Batting Average	On-Base + Slugging (OPS)	Hits	Home Runs	RBI
*David Wright*	*935 (2005-2010)*	*.306*	*.902*	*1,072*	*155*	*624*
Home Run Baker	890 (1909-1914)	.321	.847	1,094	48	610
Wade Boggs	923 (1983-1989)	.356	.937	1,274	56	425
George Brett	856 (1975-1980)	.326	.895	1,123	96	532
Jimmy Collins	825 (1897-1902)	.317	.814	1,048	44	585
Chipper Jones	927 (1995-2000)	.303	.931	1,049	189	635
George Kell	795 (1944-1949)	.305	.757	939	18	348
Freddie Lindstrom	787 (1926-1931)	.331	.852	1,064	72	474
Eddie Mathews	880 (1952-1957)	.281	.943	902	222	586
Paul Molitor	752 (1978-1983)	.292	.770	899	60	281
Scott Rolen	862 (1997-2002)	.283	.886	904	160	585
Ron Santo	958 (1961-1966)	.286	.853	1,021	158	574
Brooks Robinson	871 (1958-1963)	.278	.725	906	62	358
Mike Schmidt	939 (1974-1979)	.262	.909	868	216	611
Pie Traynor	888 (1922-1927)	.316	.798	1,096	35	568

Had Wright even been able to maintain anything close to his numbers from his first 11 seasons in the league (2004-2014) that featured the beginning of his injury issues through the 2018 season and his retirement, his resume for the Hall of Fame is that much stronger.

He would have possessed a projected career slash line of .298/.377/.494 (.871 OPS) and with his annual averages over that 15-year stretch, would have ended his career with 2,325 hits, 315 home runs, and 1,275 RBI. That batting average would rank eighth amongst the career stats of the Hall of Famers listed above, seventh in hits and home runs, and ninth in RBI.

For more on David Wright and the Mets, visit AMNY.com