ATP Indian Wells Betting Odds

The tennis season is picking into high gear with the beginning of the BNP Parabis Open, otherwise known as Indian Wells. As a Masters 1000 event, Indian Wells is arguably the most pivotal non-Grand Slam event on the ATP tour.

However, it’s not just Indian Wells. From now through the end of the U.S. Open, there will be three Grand Slams and seven Masters 1000 events, which means everything matters. Good results can lead to major changes in the ATP Tour rankings, like it did last year when a young Carlos Alcaraz made his way to the semi-finals, losing to Rafael Nadal, but setting the tone for what would be a special season.

As one of the larger tournaments on the tour, 96 players will compete in singles and 32 teams in doubles with the winner earning 1000 points in the standings and a $1,262,220 prize and the runner-up earning 600 points and a $662,360 prize.

With Novak Djokovic still not allowed to compete in the United States and Nadal battling an injury, Alcaraz will be the biggest name in the draw. However, Alcaraz had to pull out of the Australian Open with a leg injury, and then pulled out of his most recent event, in Acapulco, for the same reason, so we can’t be sure that he’s 100% right now.

He’ll be in a competitive draw with Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime, Poland’s Hubert Hurkacz, and American Tommy Paul, all players currently ranked inside the top 20 in the world.

Elsewhere, defending Indian Wells champion Taylor Fritz will be looking to defend his title and continue his rise up the ATP rankings, as he’s now 5th in the world. Since he’s defending 1000 ranking points, he needs a good result in order to remain where he is in the rankings, which is a bit of a concern after early losses at the last two Slams, in New York and Melbourne, and at the Dallas Open earlier this year.

Three of the other seeds in Fritz’s section—Australia’s Alex de Minaur, Denmark’s Holger Rune, and Italy’s Jannik Sinner—have all recently won titles, and are top 20 players in the world who could easily challenge Fritz.

The other big fish in the draw is Daniil Medvedev. The Russian has won 18 titles, and 17 of them have come on hard courts, so the 27-year-old is always a threat at Indian Wells even though he has never made a final here. He is also scorching hot at the moment, having won three straight tournaments, so it’s hard to bet against him, especially in a quarter that features clay court specialist Casper Ruud, inconsistent Alexander Zverev, and Karen Khachanov.

Schedule

The full schedule of the Indian Wells is:

Qualifying – March 5-7, 2023
Round 1 – March 8, 2023
Round 2 – March 10, 2023
Round 3 – March 12, 2023
Round 4 – March 14, 2023
Quarterfinal – March 16, 2023
Semifinal – March 18, 2023
Final – March 19, 2023

How to Watch Indian Wells:

Indian Wells matches can also be streamed live or on-demand on Tennistv.com at a monthly subscription fee of $14.99
All matches can also be streamed on tennistream.com

Odds to win Indian Wells:

Daniil Medvedev (+300)

Carlos Alcaraz (+600)

Stefanos Tsitsipas (+750)

Jannik Sinner (+900)

Holger Rune (+2000)

Andrey Rublev (+2000)

Taylor Fritz (+2200)

Felix Auger Aliassime (+2200)

Cameron Norrie (+3500)

Casper Ruud (+3500)

Frances Tiafoe (+5000)

Best Bets for Indian Wells:

Carlos Alcaraz (+600) to win the tournament

Betting on Daniil Medvedev (+300) to win the tournament makes sense given his recent form, so I fully support that bet, but I wanted to highlight the case for Alcaraz here, which is simple: he’s maybe the best player in tennis. With Novak Djokovic not in this tournament, Alcaraz is clearly the best player at Indian Wells. If he’s healthy.

And there’s the rub. If Alcaraz was healthy then he would have the best odds to win here, but do we really know that he’s not healthy? He pulled out of the last tournament to rest and heal, so maybe that’s exactly what he did. Considering he’s 8-1 in 2023 and has immense talent, why not bet on him to have recovered well and take the trophy?

Taylor Fritz (+500) to win his quarter

Taylor Fritz won this tournament last year and took out Nadal in the process, so he can certainly rise to the occasion, but I can’t bet on him winning Indian Wells again. He’s just been too inconsistent. However, he does have the level to take out Holger Rune, Alex De Minaur, and Jannik Sinner (more on him later), if he’s playing good tennis. Considering Fritz wouldn’t need to face Sinner until the quarter-finals, I think there’s a solid chance that he can advance but a semi-final showdown with Medvedev might be too much.

Frances Tiafoe (+800) to win his quarter

This bet is a product of Tiafoe being in possibly the worst quarter of the draw. I know Stefanos Tsitsipas is ranked 3rd in the world and is 13-2 so far this year, but he has just a .665 win percentage on hard courts in his career and has been known to fade in seemingly easy matches, like when he lost to Jenson Brooksby in the third round of Indian Wells last year. With Andrey Rublev and Cameron Norrie also ripe for upsets, there is a strong chance that Tiafoe can emerge from this quarter if he’s playing the level of tennis we saw from him at the U.S. Open.

Jannik Sinner (+900) to win the tournament

This is a bit of a dark horse pick, but Jannik Sinner is on the precipice of the top 10 and is playing some tremendous tennis. He’s 12-3 to start the year and has been to the quarterfinals or better in three of the four tournaments he has played this year. He also won his eighth career title in Montpellier last month so considering that Taylor Fritz may be all that stands in his way of a semi-finals trip, I think there is a good argument that Sinner can make a deep run here and maybe claim the title.

Andy Murray (+1100) to win his quarter

Let’s have fun with our final pick as an even longer shot. Former world number one Andy Murray has been one of the most thrilling players to watch in 2023. He has won six matches in deciding sets, with three of them coming when he battled back from match points down. He reached the third round of the Australian Open and made an ATP final in Doha as a wild card, before losing to Medvedev. He’s in the quarter with Alcaraz, which is bad news for Murray if Alcaraz is healthy, but if the Spaniard is still not 100% then Murray stands a real chance to emerge from a group of Auger-Aliassime, Hubert Hurkacz, and Tommy Paul.