The 2023 MLB season is just around the corner with pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training last week. While we’re still months away from the World Series, we already looked at the best value bets for the World Series and today we’re going to be looking at the best bets for AL MVP.
Last year, Aaron Judge took home the award, garnering 28 of the 30 first-place votes. Judge famously broke Roger Maris’ Yankee record by hitting 62 home runs, while also batting .311 and knocking in 131 runs. He was the 21st Yankee to win the AL MVP, the most of any franchise, and, at 6’7″ is now the tallest MVP of all time, topping his current teammate Giancarlo Staton, who won the award with Miami in 2017 and is an inch shorter than Judge.
Even with the season a month away, parsing through the AL MVP odds below will help us determine which bets could be profitable for you in a few months’ time, so let’s dig in.
FIRST-BET OFFER!CLAIM OFFER
2023 AL MVP Odds
| Player | Team | Odds to win |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | +200 |
| Aaron Judge | Yankees | +450 |
| Mike Trout | Angels | +450 |
| Julio Rodriguez | Mariners | +700 |
| Yordan Alvarez | Astros | +1100 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Blue Jays | +1200 |
| Jose Ramirez | Guardians | +1500 |
| Rafael Devers | Red Sox | +2000 |
| Corey Seager | Rangers | +2500 |
| Kyle Tucker | Astros | +2500 |
Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook, click here to see up-to-date odds.
Favorites
Shohei Ohtani (+200) comes in as the clear favorite for AL MVP and rightfully so given that he combines All-Star stats as a pitcher and also has a hitter. Only a historic season from Aaron Judge kept Ohtani from winning back-to-back AL MVP Awards and Ohtani will likely be a favorite every year he keeps being used as a full-time player at two positions.
However, that doesn’t make him a good bet at +200. The odds are simply too low. If you truly believe Ohtani will win the AL MVP then wait for a hot stretch from another player that knocks Ohtani’s odds down a little bit and pounce. It will happen because everybody is always searching for the player that can top Ohtani.
While Aaron Judge (+450) is listed as a favorite, it’s not a bet I can get behind. The Yankees’ captain had a career year in his contract year last year, as we mentioned above, and then parlayed that success into a nine-year $360 million contract, the third-largest in baseball history.
Players historically do not perform as well in the first year of their new contract but Judge also has some injury concerns that make it tough to expect a repeat performance. While he appeared in over 148 games in each of the last two seasons but had three seasons in a row before that where he failed to play in 113 games. He’s now 31 years old and is an incredibly large human to be running around the outfield each day. The potential for injury and natural regression makes him too risky of a bet at these odds.
I have similar playing time concerns around Mike Trout (+450), who hit 40 home runs in just 119 games, but who hasn’t played over 140 games since 2016. It’s possible that Trout could win AL MVP in just 140 games but it would likely require him to put up an otherwordly statline that’s possible but not likely enough to bet him to win at these odds.
Contenders
Julio Rodriguez (+750) is another trendy bet after a tremendous 2022 that saw him win the AL Rookie of the Year Award. The 22-year-old slashed .284/.345/.509 with 28 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 25 stolen bases over 511 at-bats last year, helping the Seattle Mariners reach the postseason for the first time since 2001.
Rodríguez was a top-tier prospect who made good on his potential and is already among the best in the American League in barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. If he takes another step in his development then it’s easy to see him winning the AL MVP. I just won’t bet on him to do it this year.
Aaron Judge was the 12th former AL Rookie of the Year to win MVP, but only Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox and Cal Ripken Jr. of the Orioles did it in back-to-back years. I’ll trust the betting trend here and say that these odds make it too tough to bet on Rodriguez to pull off something that only two people in the history of the American League (and four people total) have done.
Jose Ramirez (+1500) is one of my favorite longer-odds bets. The Guardians’ third baseman hit .280/.355/.514 with 29 home runs and 20 stolen bases which is impressive when you consider that he injured his thumb in June and required off-season surgery.
Ramírez had 28 extra-base hits, 51 RBIs, and just 15 strikeouts in April and May before the thumb injury. It’s obviously highly unlikely he keeps up that level of production, but it shows us what he is capable of on a team that will be in the postseason conversation. That peak level makes me feel good about taking a flyer on Ramírez at these long odds.
Dark Horse
Corey Seager (+2500) is another intriguing AL MVP bet and one that many have been making since he was at +4000 a few weeks ago. The Rangers shortstop is projected as a consensus top-10 player by WAR in 2023, but his odds and being impacted by hitting just .245 with an OPS of .772 last year, both career worsts.
However, Seager is one of the prime candidates for positive regression this year. For starters, his .242 BABIP from last season will not carry over. He was supremely unlucky. He also lost more hits into the shift of any player in baseball, so with the shift now banned, Seager should see a natural boost in average in addition to the regression that would have been coming his way anyways.
The Rangers also made some big moves this offseason, adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and also seeing the graduation of former top prospect Josh Jung. This is a team that can certainly compete for a playoff spot and Seager could be its best player.
For more MLB coverage like these AL MVP odds, visit amNY Sports
