AL Rookie of the Year Race Heats Up as Season Progresses

We’re just shy of a month into the 2023 MLB season, but we’ve already seen some large odds changes when it comes to the AL Rookie of the Year award.

The biggest story is that, despite his slow start, Anthony Volpe of the New York Yankees has vaulted to the top of the race while pre-season favorite Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles has begun to fall down into the middle of the pack in what’s now a tight race.

We’ve also seen a few recent pitching call-ups in Taj Bradley and Mason Miller jump into the discussion, so perhaps there is still some value to mine here? Let’s dig in.

2023 AL Rookie of the Year Odds

Player	POS	Team	Odds to win
Anthony Volpe	SS	Yankees	+400
Hunter Brown	SP	Astros	+550
Masataka Yoshida	OF	Red Sox	+550
Gunnar Henderson	3B	Orioles	+800
Taj Bradley	SP	Rays	+1000
Grayson Rodriguez	SP	Orioles	+1100
Oscar Colas	OF	White Sox	+1200
Josh Jung	3B	Rangers	+1300
Logan O’Hoppe	C	Angels	+1800

Odds courtesy of Draftkings Sportsbook

Favorites

Gunnar Henderson (+800) was the clear favorite for AL Rookie of the Year coming into the season at +250. The 21-year-old made his MLB debut in August and slashed .259/.348/.440 with four home runs and 18 RBIs in 34 games. However, he now looks like a candidate to be demoted if he can’t get it together.

Henderson is hitting .193 with a 34% strikeout rate on the season. He has just two barrels in 18 games played, and doesn’t have much to hang his resume on other than his walk rate. He’s a talented player, without question, but he’s going to have to turn it around quickly if he wants to beat some of these other contenders.

Anthony Volpe (+400) has now leaped ahead of him despite being at +900 a week before the season. However, it’s hard to make a case for Volpe at these odds right now. He has eight stolen bases, which is elite, but he’s hitting .200 with a 28% strikeout rate. His patience will get him on base, and the stolen bases will keep him in this conversation, but he’s never posted high batting averages in the minors, so it’s likely he finishes the year hitting .240 or under, and I can’t see that winning the AL Rookie of the Year.

Hunter Brown (+550) has separated himself from the other pitchers in the AL Rookie of the Year race early on. He has a 3.09 ERA with a 24.7% strikeout rate in his first four starts, posting a 2-0 record on a good Houston team, which should boost his resume as the year goes on.

Brown was impressive down the stretch as a member of the Astros’ bullpen last year and played his way onto the postseason rotation. He has a fastball that touches 99 mph with good ride and a plus curve that leads a four-pitch mix that gives him consistent strikeout upside. He’s a solid bet at these odds.

Contenders

Taj Bradley (+1000) has gone from not being on the board to being among the top-five contenders in just over a week. The Rays prospect has been great in his two starts this year, posting a 2.61 ERA and striking out 17 in 10.1 innings. The Rays being a really good team also means that he’s 2-0.

Bradley threw over 130 innings in the minor leagues last year, so he could push for 140-150 innings in the majors this year and be a fixture in the Tampa rotation now that Jeffrey Springs is having Tommy John surgery. Bradley features a four-seam and cutter with a plus curveball and should maintain strikeout upside throughout the season.

Dark Horse

Josh Jung (+1200) remains a longshot betting option and I can’t help but believe it’s because he struggled in his major league debut last season, slashing .204/.235/.418 with five home runs, 14 RBIs, and 39 strikeouts. However, he was coming off of a torn labrum, which undoubtedly impacted his performance.

The year prior, in Double-A Frisco, he hit .308 with 10 home runs and 40 RBIs and was a career .311 hitter in the minor leagues with 30 home runs and 118 RBI in 153 games, which is basically a full MLB season.

This year, he’s hitting .286/.337/.442 with 3 HRs, 11 RBI, 13 runs, and one stolen base. He hits fifth in a solid Rangers lineup and is actually one of the best AL Rookie of the Year bets at these odds.