The Buffalo Bills play at home in the snow to try and extend their winning streak to five games and clinch a playoff birth when they take on the division-rival Miami Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (8-5) @ Buffalo Bills (10-3)

Game Details:

Location: Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, NY
Time: Saturday, December 18th at 8:15 p.m. ET
Channel: NFL Network

Betting Stats:

SPREAD: BUF -7
OVER/UNDER: 43.5
MONEYLINE: BUF (-335), MIA (+260)

Top Matchups/Storylines:

How will both teams handle the snow in general?

In Week 3, Buffalo traveled to Miami in temperatures over 90 degrees that felt like 100 on the field in the humidity. The Dolphins famously constructed their field so their bench is in the shade while the opponents are in the sun. As a result, the Bills had multiple players leave the game for long stretches due to heat exhaustion and Josh Allen said it was tough to breathe.

The reverse will happen in Buffalo on Saturday with the temperatures set to be in the low 20s and snow in the forecast. Considering Miami had to use heaters when they played the Chargers in 50-degree weather in Los Angeles last week, that could be an issue.

Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has also struggled in the cold, going 0-4 in games where the temp is 45 degrees or colder. The Miami offense has yet to score 20 points in those games and he has a passer rating of just 61.4 with just three total touchdowns while turning the ball over six times.

If the field is sloppy and wet then Miami’s offense may have to change from the quick-hitting passes they throw to their speedy wide receivers, who will likely struggle for footing. Which team can establish the run and maintain possession of the ball in wet conditions will likely go a long way to deciding the winner.

Can the Bills stop the run in the snow?

After last year’s Blizzard Bowl against the Patriots, we have to discuss this.

On December 6th of last year, Buffalo hosted New England in a snow-covered field with 20 mph winds. The Patriots attempted just three passes during the entire game, running the ball down Buffalo’s throats for 222 yards on 46 carries. It was an embarrassing loss for the Bills and one that, in part, led to a renewed focus on stopping the run that saw them sign three new defensive linemen this season.

That effort has worked out for the most part as Buffalo is the 3rd ranked rush defense by DVOA. They’re 10th-best in the league, allowing 4.2 yards per carry, and 4th-best with just 99.8 rushing yards per game allowed. They also rank 10th in expected points contributed by their run defense.

On the other hand, Miami is 25th in the NFL in yards per carry at 4.1 and 29th in rushing yards per game with 89.8 yards on the ground per contest. They rank 24th in expected points added by their rushing attack and are also currently dealing with an injury to their left tackle Terron Armstead, who did play last week.

However, Miami does have two solid runners. Since coming over from San Francisco, Jeff Wilson Jr. is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, racking up 238 yards on the ground and two touchdowns. His partner, Raheem Mostert, has 610 yards rushing on 4.5 yards per carry in 12 games for the Dolphins, so they can be an effective one-two punch.

Plus, there are some weak spots in the Buffalo run defense. Safety Damar Hamlin has been burned on bad angles and missed tackles recently, and ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky specifically highlighted the way the Jets attacked Taron Johnson in the run game.

If the Bills struggle to tackle on Saturday, they could leave the Dolphins with ample opportunities to emerge with a road win.

Can the Bills get back to controlling the clock with their running game?

Buffalo came into the game against New York riding a bit of a high with their own running game. They had rushed for at least 150 yards as a team in four of their last six games, and James Cook was coming off of his best performance, rushing for 64 yards on 14 carries against the Patriots while adding another 41 yards through the air. Most people thought the breakout was happening.

Then, Buffalo rushed for just 102 yards as a team against the Jets. Cook was held to just six yards on four carries, and the team only had 13 total running back rushes all game.

Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is not going to be able to abandon the run game given the snowy conditions, so the Bills are going to be relying on Cook and Devin Singletary to move the chains and hold onto the football. If the team, and the playcalling, struggle the way it did against the Jets, it could be another long and slow game for the Buffalo offense.

Will the return of Cole Beasley improve the Buffalo passing game?

It’s weird to say but another boost for the Buffalo offense could be the return of Cole Beasley. Even though Beasley was retired just a week ago, he was signed to the Bills’ practice squad this week and has a real shot to play on Saturday given his familiarity with this offense.

During his time in Buffalo from 2019-2021, Beasley was dominant as the main slot receiver. He hauled in 231 catches for 2,438 yards and 11 touchdowns during his three seasons with the Bills and was named an All-Pro in 2020 after catching 82 passes for 967 yards and four touchdowns.

Even last year, in his “down year,” Beasley averaged 3.7 yards after the catch per reception. This year, Gabe Davis averages the exact same, and McKenzie, who is seen as elusive and shifty, averages just 3.2 yards after the catch. So Beasley can likely still provide value.

That was also made clear when Josh Allen dropped this nugget in a Wednesday press conference, mentioning that “there are some concepts that maybe we bring back” now that Beasley has returned. The implication that Beasley had a skill set the other slot receivers have been unable to replicate is important, and Allen still clearly trusts Beasley to find the soft spots in coverage and get open.

In a game that could be decided by crucial third down conversions and simple short passing, Beasley’s return may not have come at a better time.

Will the Bills’ issues at CB2 hurt them against the Dolphins’ receivers?

We know this Dolphins offense is dangerous because of the way that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can make plays with the football in their hands. While the weather could dampen some of that effectiveness, the Bills will also need far more than they’ve been getting out of their second cornerback spot.

A week after Xavier Rhodes played the majority of snaps opposite Tre’Davious White, it was Dane Jackson playing all 74 snaps for the Buffalo defense against the Jets. Rhodes was inactive and first-round pick Kaiir Elam, who was inactive against the Patriots, was limited to just one snap on special teams in the win over the Jets.

Buffalo is going to have to figure out what it wants to do at CB2 because there are some troubling signs right now. Jackson has a bad habit of missing tackles in the open field, and he’s struggled to get his head around and make plays on passes in the air. It could be a major issue this week because there is a blueprint for how a secondary can disrupt this Dolphins’ offense.

When the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Dolphins, they befuddled Tua Tagvailoa by using press coverage. However, they were just following a script that Buffalo used in Week 3. Robert Mays on The Athletic Football Show mentioned that the Chargers used press coverage on the Miami receivers 35% of the time; however, in Week 3 the Bills used press coverage 40% of the time.

The Bills also played that game without Micah Hyde Tre’Davious White, Jordan Poyer, and Dane Jackson. That is their ENTIRE starting secondary. So if the Bills used press coverage on Miami’s starters with all of their backups in, you can only imagine that they’d feel comfortable doing it with their starters back on the field. The question will then be if Miami has made any adjustments.