AL Rookie of the Year Odds: Volpe, Peraza

The 2023 MLB season is just around the corner with Spring Training games already underway. So far we’ve looked at, the best value bets for the World Series, the AL MVP, the NL MVP, the AL Cy Young, and the NL Cy Young. Today we turn our attention to the young guns with the AL Rookie of the Year award.

Last year, Julio Rodriguez won the award, taking 29 of a possible 30 first-place votes with Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman getting the only one other. Rodriguez, an outfielder for the Seattle Mariners, overcame a slow start to hit .284 with 28 home runs, 75 RBI, 84 runs scored, and 25 stolen bases in an impressive year. In doing so, he was the first rookie since Mike Trout in 2012 to post a season with 25 home runs and 25 steals.

Under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement rules, Seattle earns an extra draft pick in this year’s MLB Draft because Rodríguez was a top-100 prospect who was on the Opening Day roster and went on to win the award. The new rules were meant to incentivize teams to promote their top prospects earlier rather than keeping them in the minors to ensure they would be under contract for longer.

In addition to his one first-place vote, Rutschman received 18 second-place votes and nine third-place votes. He earns a year of service time thanks to his second-place finish, which means he will be a free agent with the potential for a lucrative new contract one year sooner.

2023 AL Rookie of the Year Odds

Player	POS	Team	Odds to win
Gunnar Henderson	3B	Orioles	+250
Masataka Yoshida	OF	Red Sox	+600
Royce Lewis	SS	Twins	+700
Hunter Brown	SP	Astros	+800
Grayson Rodriguez	SP	Orioles	+900
Triston Casas	1B	Red Sox	+900
Anthony Volpe	SS	Yankees	+900
Logan O’Hoppe	C	Angels	+1000
Josh Jung	3B	Rangers	+1200
Oscar Colas	OF	White Sox	+1500
Oswald Peraza	SS	Yankees	+2500

Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook

Favorites

Gunnar Henderson (+250) is the clear favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. The 21-year-old made his MLB debut in August and slashed .259/.348/.440 with four home runs and 18 RBIs in 34 games. He’s the top overall prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, and will like be the starting shortstop for the Orioles this season. Given that he’s an everyday starter who will likely hit in the middle of the lineup for a competitive team, there is a good chance that Henderson can put together a season where he hits 20 home runs and steals 15 bases while posting a solid batting average. That could be enough to win him this award.

However, he is also battling against two potentially dominant young pitchers.

Hunter Brown (+800) and Grayson Rodriguez (+900) are two of the top pitching prospects in the minors and both have the arsenal to be impact starters right from the beginning like Spencer Strider was in Atlanta last year. Brown might have a better chance at capturing the AL Rookie of the Year given that he debuted in the majors last year and threw 126.1 total innings compared to Rodrguez’s 75.2, which would indicate that he could throw more innings this year as well, improving his chance to rack up better stats.

Brown was impressive down the stretch as a member of the Astros’ bullpen last year and played his way onto the postseason rotation. He has a fastball that touches 99 mph with good ride and a plus curve that leads a four-pitch mix. While there are some questions about his command, an early injury to Lance McCullers means that Brown should have a spot in the Opening Day rotation and a chance to prove his worth.

Many believe that Rodriguez is the top pitching prospect in baseball, and it’s hard to argue against that given that his career minor league ERA is 2.47 with a 0.95 WHIP and 419 strikeouts in just 292 innings. The concern when it comes to betting on him is that he missed time last year with a lat strain, and the Orioles may be cautious with him given his long-term upside. If he’s capped at around 110 innings, it could be really hard for him to win the AL Rookie of the Year.

It may seem like Masataka Yoshida (+600) shouldn’t be in this conversation since he’s 29 years old and a seven-year veteran of the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization in Japan, but Shohei Ohtani, Jose Abreu, Ichiro Suzuki, and others all won AL Rookie of the Year awards after playing professionally in foreign leagues.

Yoshida has drawn easy comparisons to Suzuki, but they do have similar stats in the five seasons prior to their posting for MLB free agency. Yoshida has tremendous plate discipline drawing 80 walks to just 41 strikeouts in his final NPB season, while also hitting .335/.561/.447 with 21 home runs and 88 RBIs. He has shown better than advertised power so far in spring training and could be a true competitor for the AL Rookie of the Year award.

Contenders

Josh Jung (+1200) is an intriguing option if he can stay healthy. The Rangers’ third baseman struggled in his major league debut last season, slashing .204/.235/.418 with five home runs, 14 RBIs, and 39 strikeouts. However, he was coming off of a torn labrum, which undoubtedly impacted his performance. The year prior, in Double-A Frisco, he hit .308 with 10 home runs and 40 RBIs and was a career .311 hitter in the minor leagues with 30 home runs and 118 RBI in 153 games, which is basically a full MLB season.

Given his limited experience and his past injuries, he’s a bit of a longer shot to capture the AL Rookie of the Year, but he was the 8th overall pick in 2019 and has had tremendous success in his short career and absolutely has the ability to be the best player listed here.

Dark Horse

Oswald Peraza (+2500) is my preferred betting option for the Yankees, even though Anthony Volpe (+900) has better odds. Some believe Volpe will work his way into the Yankees’ lineup sooner rather than later, but I think Peraza is going to get the first crack at the shortstop job and play well enough to not give it up.

Despite being the less-hyped of the Yankee middle infielders, Peraza has unquestioned talent. He hit .259 last season in the minors with 19 home runs and 33 stolen bases. He has more power than some believe and showed well in his 18-game MLB sample last season, hitting .306/.404/.429 with one home run and two stolen bases. I believe there is a legitimate chance that he can win the shortstop job and push for 450 at-bats in New York, which would make him a contender for the AL Rookie of the Year.

Obviously, as the odds suggest, it’s a long shot, so I wouldn’t be placing any big bets on him, but he’s my favorite option at +2000 or longer.