Can Mets halt surging Phillies: Preview, predictions for crucial NL East series

The New York Mets have been tremendous since the trade deadline, winning nine of ten games, including four out of five against the Atlanta Braves last weekend and a sweep of the lowly Cincinnati Reds.

Now, they’ll face another crucial test as they look to claim their hold on the NL East when they welcome in a Phillies team that has won 12 of its last 14 games and now holds the second NL Wild Card spot.

While the Phillies would be hard pressed to make up the 10.5 game deficit they face in the NL East, the Mets could go a long way to keeping the Phillies at bay with a series win here. With both teams set up to have their aces on the hill, we should see a tremendous series with two heavyweight teams going toe-to-toe. Below, we’ll walk you through what to expect from each game, along with a prediction of who will come out on top.

Recent Team Stats

Last 10: NYM is 8-2 in their last 10 games. PHI is 8-2 in their last 10 games.
Last 10 – Score: NYM averaged 6.2 runs scored in their last 10 games. PHI averaged 5.6 runs scored.
Last 10 – Runs Allowed: NYM allowed 3.7 runs on average in their last 10 games. PHI allowed 3.5 runs.
Last 10 – Team ERA: NYM allowed a 3.49 ERA in their last 10 games. PHI allowed a 3.79 ERA
Last 10 – Team Batting Average: NYM hitting .303 in their last 10 games. PHI hitting .263
Last 10 – Team OPS: NYM has a .867 OPS in their last 10 games. PHI has an .850 OPS
Last 10 – Hitting Strikeout Rate: NYM hitters strike out 18.4% in their last 10 games. PHI strikes out 21.7%

You can see from above how closely matched these two teams have been over the recent stretch. The Mets are a slightly better team when it comes to pitching and are not as dependent on power for offensive output as the Phillies are. The Phillies are a bit more all-or-nothing, which should favor the Mets in a longer series, but also means that the Phillies can be a dangerous opponent when their big bats like Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, and J.T. Realmuto get hot.

Friday, August 12th, 7:10 PM

NYM Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer (8-2, 1.98 ERA, 0.9 WHIP, 11.29 K/9)
PHI Starting Pitcher: Ranger Suárez (8-5, 3.68 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.62 K/9)

This would seem to be an open and shut case for a New York win with Max Scherzer on the mound, but the stats above don’t highlight how good Ranger Suarez has been. In early June, Suarez changed his pitch mix, introducing a cutter that has quickly become his most-used pitch. Since then, Suarez is 4-2 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He has also only allowed three earned runs over his last four starts, which equates to a 1.27 ERA.

Obviously, Ranger Suarez is not the pitcher Max Scherzer is, no matter how good Suarez has been of late. However, this game may be closer than people initially think if Suarez keeps pitching the way he has been, which means the Mets will need to play clean to take this one.

Prediction: NYM Win 5-3

Saturday, August 13th, 7:10 PM

NYM Starting Pitcher: Jacob deGrom (1-0, 2.53 ERA, 0.47 WHIP, 15.19 K/9)
PHI Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola (8-8, 3.17 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 9.77 K/9)

Being able to follow Max Scherzer with Jacob deGrom will always make the Mets tough to beat in a series. deGrom has looked great in his return but has obviously still been limited in terms of pitch count, so it will be interesting to see how far the Mets push him. Aaron Nola, despite his record, is having a great season for Philadelphia, so if the Mets don’t give deGrom run support, this could be a tough one.

Prediction: NYM win 3-2

Sunday, August 14th, 1:40 PM

Odds not yet published

NYM Starting Pitcher: Chris Bassitt (9-7, 3.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.93 K/9)
PHI Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler (11-5, 2.63 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.73 K/9)

In most cases, Chris Bassitt on the mound would give the Mets a clear advantage, but that’s not the case here. Former Met Zack Wheeler has been tremendous, again, for the Phillies. Given how crucial this game would be after dropping the first two, I would expect the Phillies to put out their best lineup to try and prevent the sweep.

Prediction: PHI Wins 5-2