After the trade deadline, we looked at the World Series odds to see which teams had improved their chances the most.
At the time, the Yankees were still the favorites to win the World Series at +330, and the San Diego Padres were our best bet at +1100 after the acquisition of Juan Soto and the imminent return of Fernando Tatis.
What a difference two weeks makes.
Since we published that article, Fernando Tatis Jr. has been suspended 80 games for using performance-enhancing drugs, and the Yankees have gone 2-9.
As a result, the Dodgers are now the favorites to win the World Series without seeing their odds change at all, and Houston has leapfrogged the Yankees to have the second-best odds at +390 while the Yankees have fallen down to +400.
The case for the Dodgers remains the same as it was two weeks ago: they have the best record in baseball and lead the league in OPS, wRC+, and team ERA. They just got Chris Taylor back off the IL, will be getting Dustin May back in a few weeks, and have seen improved performance from injured veterans Justin Turner and Max Muncy.
Despite jumping ahead of the Yankees, the Astros have flaws of their own. They are just 9-6 in the month of August and just lost series to both Boston and Cleveland. They are 8th in baseball in batting average in August and 12th in OPS. However, they also just got Lance McCullers back and likely have more starting pitching depth than any other team in contention, especially in the American League.
Yet, even with a rotation that features McCullers, Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia, it’s hard to place confidence in Houston over the top two National League contenders.
The other American League favorite, the Yankees, have continued to struggle and now must overcome the emerging injury concerns for DJ LeMahieu, further complicating their case as a best bet to win the World Series.
The team’s problems started earlier than just this recent poor 11-game stretch. The Yankees are just 16-13 since the start of July and may not have the pitching depth to make a deep postseason with Luis Severino hurt, Jameson Taillon inconsistent, and Clay Holmes losing his grip on the closer’s role. The offense is also 21st in OPS, 23rd in average, and 20th in wRC+ in the month of August, which inspires little confidence.
However, while the Yankees have struggled, the Mets have seen their odds improve from +650 to +450. They have gone 28-12 since the start of July and have started to shore up their bullpen with the return of Trevor May and the addition of Tylor Megill, who will soon move to the bullpen from the rotation. The offensive additions of Daniel Vogelbach and Tyler Naquin have proved wonders and with Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom leading the rotation, it’s hard to bet against the Mets in a playoff series.
While Mets fans are used to things going sideways, we may have reached a point where the Mets at +450 to win the World Series are one of the best bets to make.
Meanwhile, San Diego has seen its odds fall to +1800 without Fernando Tatis coming back, and I’m not sure the offense has enough thump, even with Juan Soto and Josh Bell. With Sean Manaea starting to fall apart a bit in the rotation, the Padres may be facing an uphill battle to knock out the Dodgers and Mets en route to a title.
