After a slow and grueling Thursday Night Football game last week, we might be in store for another when the Commanders travel to Chicago to take on the Bears. We’ll break down the game and give you our predictions and favorite bets to help make the game more enjoyable for you.
Washington Commanders (1-4) at Chicago Bears (2-3)
@ Soldier Field in Chicago, IL
How to Watch:
- Day: Thursday, October 13th
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: Amazon Prime
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: CHI (-110), WAS (-110)
- SPREAD: Pick’em
- OVER/UNDER: 38
Matchup:
If we want to be kind, we can say that both of these teams are rebuilding. The Bears have young players like Justin Fields and Darnell Mooney, while the Commanders have rookies like Jahan Dotson and Brian Robinson Jr. If we wanted to be more realistic, we would say that these teams are both below average.
However, we need to at least give both teams credit in regard to their strength of schedule. Two of the Commanders’ losses have been to the Cowboys and Eagles, who have a combined record of 9-1. The other losses were to the Titans and Jaguars, so there’s not a lot to say there, but the Bears have losses against the Vikings, Packers, and 4-1 Giants, while also carrying a win over the NFC West-leading San Francisco 49ers.
The biggest story here will be how Carson Wentz and the Commanders respond to head coach Ron Rivera’s weird interview this week where he was asked about why the rest of the NFC East seems to be so far ahead of Washington, and he just said, “Quarterback.”
Sure, he apologized, but can we be so sure the team is ready to play for him after throwing his quarterback under the bus? His quarterback who also has 1,390 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season so far. No, Carson Wentz is not much more than an average quarterback now, but he’s also not the reason the Commanders are behind in the NFC East, especially when two other teams are quarterbacked by Daniel Jones and Cooper Rush.
Wentz has also been running for his life behind an offensive line that has allowed 20 sacks, which is 2nd-worst in the league. Of course, the Bears are 7th in the NFL in pressure rate, so they could also be in the backfield often, trying to force Wentz into another interception; he already has six so far on the season.
Yet, the Washington pass rush could also have a field day here. The Bears rank last in the NFL in adjusted sack rate and will now face a Commanders team that is 4th in the NFL in pressure rate and 6th in tackles for a loss. We could see both quarterbacks running from pressure for the majority of the game.
But even when Fields isn’t under duress, this Bears offense has been bad. They are 31st in the NFL with just 1,370 yards of TOTAL OFFENSE on the season. Only ahead of the Carolina Panthers. Fields did have a solid game last week against the Vikings, and the Bears now have a healthy duo at running back with David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, but we’ve yet to see them really make sure of any talent on the offensive side of the ball.
This game may simply come down to which defense can take more advantage of their opponent’s offensive miscues and offensive line woes. That might not lead to tremendous viewing pleasure, but whichever team pulls out the victory won’t care.
Staff Picks:
Top Player Props:
If you’re going to be betting on action besides the spread, here are three player props we like from Thursday night’s game:
Justin Fields Under 171.5 passing yards
I know unders aren’t fun to bet, but they can often be the smart play. I like targeting this total because Justin has only thrown for more than 122 yards twice this season. Both of those times were in games that the Bears were trailing and needed to catch up, but I don’t think that will be the case here. They are actually favored, and this could be an ugly, slow, grind-it-out game that would be more run-heavy. Since Chicago is only attempting 17.6 passes per game through five weeks, and Fields is only completing 55.7% of those passes, I’ll bank on the under here.
Where to bet: Justin Fields Under 171.5 Passing Yards | -113 at BetRivers
Brian Robinson Under 49.5 Rushing Yards
I love the Brian Robinson story, don’t get me wrong. I am absolutely rooting for him as a player after he made his NFL debut last week just a few months after being shot in the leg in an attempted car jacking. However, we need to put emotion aside when we place a bet. Robinson played just 29% of Washington’s offensive snaps and had nine carries for 22 yards last week. Even if he increases that to 12 or 13 carries this offensive line is ranked by Football Outsiders ranks as dead last in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards.
So he’s not getting full snaps and playing behind a bad line in a game he might be trailing? That doesn’t sound enticing.
Where to bet: Brian Robinson Under 49.5 Rushing Yards | -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Carson Wentz to Throw an Interception
My picks for this game may be a bit depressing, but I guess that tells you how I feel about this game. Wentz has a least one interception in four of his five games this year, and we already covered that his coach publicly questioned him this week. I think that leads Wentz to try and prove Rivera wrong, which will lead to him taking chances that he maybe shouldn’t. One of those chances will lead to an interception.
Where to bet: Carson Wentz to throw an interception | -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook
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