The final game of Wild Card Weekend kicks off on Monday night when the Dallas Cowboys travel to Florida to take on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at Tampa Bay Bucs (8-9)
Game Details:
- Location: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, FL
- Time: Monday, January 16th at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN/ABC
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: DAL ML (-140), TB ML (+118)
- SPREAD: DAL -2.5
- OVER/UNDER: 45.5
Preview:
Yes, that is the 12-5 Dallas Cowboys as a road team despite winning four more games this season than the Tampa Bay Bucs. However, Dallas plays in the NFC East and finished in 2nd place behind the Philadelphia Eagles, while Tampa Bay went 4-2 within the NFC South, ultimately winning the division and getting a home game because they beat up on teams that couldn’t finish better than 7-10.
So now Dallas has to go on the road to face arguably the greatest quarterback of all time in Tom Brady. Despite Tampa’s disappointing year, Brady was still successful throwing for 4,694 passing yards which marked the third straight season in which he’s gone above 4,500 with Tampa Bay. He also had just nine interceptions (1.2% interception rate) and led an offense that finished 2nd in the league with an average of 269.8 passing yards per game.
Recently, Brady also had a healthy Mike Evans at wide receiver, which led to some huge games, like his blow-up 207 yards and three touchdown game against the Panthers to clinch a playoff spot. On the season, Mike Evans has a team-high 1,124 yards on 77 catches with six touchdowns while Chris Godwin recorded 104 grabs, 1023 yards, and three touchdowns to form a dynamic receiving duo.
However, Tampa Bay really struggled on the ground and ranked 32nd in the league in rushing offense with 76.9 yards per game on the ground. Leonard Fournette is the Buccaneers’ leading rusher with 668 total yards and rookie Rachaad White was behind him with 481 yards on 129 carries. The Bucs will likely need more from them, just enough to keep the defense honest, if they want to upset the Cowboys.
On the whole, Tampa Bay was 25th in the league in scoring, averaging 18.4 points per game; however, they were 10th-best in the league, giving away just a 10.3% turnover rate. That will be helpful since this Dallas defense thrives on turnovers. Their 33 takeaways led the league and created a plus-10 turnover margin that was second only to the San Francisco 49ers.
However, the Dallas defense has also struggled of late, allowing 24.3 points and 356 yards per game over their last three games to teams quarterbacked by Gardner Minshew, Joshua Dobbs, and Sam Howell. Those names are nowhere near Brady, so the Dallas defense will need to figure it out quick.
On offense, Dallas ended the regular season 11th overall in total yards, and 4th in points per game. They were 14th in the league in passing offense with 219.8 yards per game, but Dak Prescott has been prone to mistakes. In the last seven games, he’s thrown 11 interceptions which have helped stall out this Cowboys offense that is not as deep as we expected.
CeeDee Lamb leads the team with 107 catches for 1,359 yards and nine touchdowns, but it thins out a bit behind him now that Amari Cooper is gone. Dalton Schultz is next with 57 receptions for 577 yards, and five touchdowns, but the next-best receiver is Noah Brown, who had 43 grabs for 555 yards, and three touchdowns. It’s not quite the explosive passing offense we’ve come to know.
However, Tony Pollard-Ezekiel Elliott combo has been exceptional for Dallas, finishing the regular season ninth in the NFL in rushing offense. Pollard went over 1,000 yards on the season, finishing with 1,007 yards and nine touchdowns. He also had three 100-yard performances during the season while Elliott had none. Together, they had 1,883 yards on the ground and will need to come up big against Tampa Bay’s 15th-ranked run defense which should get back stud defensive tackle Vita Vea.
Pick:
Tampa Bay 27 Dallas 23
Same Game Parlay:
If you want to have a little fun with this game, put together this four-leg same-game-parlay for some big odds.
Tampa Bay OVER 20.5 points
Dallas OVER 20.5 points
Mike Evans OVER 59.5 receiving yards
Dalton Schultz anytime touchdown scorer
This game will likely be a bit higher-scoring so each team to score over 20.5 makes sense to me. I also love the way Brady and Evans have been connecting of late, so getting Evans over 59.5 makes sense, but I think you could even push it higher with an alternate yardage total if you wanted. I also believe in the way Dallas has been utilizing Schultz in the red zone, so think he’s a good bet to find the end zone if you want to add a kicker to this parlay.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at DraftKings for +750 so that means a $10 bet will win you $85.
