On Tuesday, the USA Today released their predictions for the 2022 NFL season. In it, they projected the Buffalo Bills to finish the season 15-2 and win the AFC.
“Josh Allen is perhaps the most dynamic quarterback in the NFL and only seems to be getting better. A formidable offense featuring Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley is now supplemented by a defense improved by free-agent pass rusher Von Miller. The Bills will emerge battle-tested from a tough AFC East featuring an improved New England Patriots team, a dangerous Miami Dolphins squad, and a sneaky-competitive New York Jets unit to reach Super Bowl 57.”
Since 15-2 seems like such an eye-popping record, I decided to look at the Buffalo Bills’ schedule, week-by-week, to see if it was a realistic expectation.
| Week 1 | Thursday Sep. 8 |
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at Los Angeles Rams | LOSS (0-1) |
We’ll try to keep it realistic here, so we’ll give the Bills a loss on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions. If Tre White isn’t 100% healthy to start the season, covering Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson could be a problem.
| Week 2 | Monday Sep. 19 |
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vs Tennessee Titans | LOSS (0-2) |
Historically, Derrick Henry has run all over Buffalo, whether A.J. Brown was active or not. This will be an early test for the Bills’ revamped defensive line, and the home fans will be loud and ready to go. However, I said I was leaning towards a cautious projection here, so we’ll say the Bills lose a close one.
| Week 3 | Sunday Sep. 25 |
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at Miami Dolphins | WIN (1-2) |
The Dolphins will be better this year, but the Bills are still the better team, and they have a strong track record of showing up to play against Miami. If they do drop the first two games, look for a statement win against Miami to get the season back on track.
| Week 4 | Sunday Oct. 2 |
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at Baltimore Ravens | WIN (2-2) |
The Bills have done well against Lamar Jackson in the past, containing him on the ground and forcing him to beat them through the air. I expect more of the same here and don’t think Baltimore has the offensive firepower to keep up with this Bills’ offense.
| Week 5 | Sunday Oct. 9 |
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vs Pittsburgh Steelers | WIN (3-2) |
Will it be the Bills versus Mitchell Trubisky? Regardless of who is under center for Pittsburgh, it would be hard to trust said quarterback to come into Buffalo against this defense and carry a fairly average Steelers offense to a victory. I’ll take the Bills to continue their winning streak here.
| Week 6 | Sunday Oct. 16 |
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at Kansas City Chiefs | WIN (4-2) |
Call this a gut feeling. The Bills will say this is just another game and there is no exorcising the demons of the postseason loss until they beat the Chiefs in the postseason. But inside that locker room, they will 100% be champing at the bit to win this game. I think the Bills make a statement here.
| Week 7 | Sunday Oct. 23 |
BYE |
| Week 8 | Sunday Oct. 30 |
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vs Green Bay Packers | WIN (5-2) |
If this was in Lambeau I might have a different prediction. I’m just not sure this is going to be the same explosive Packers team without Davante Adams (bold call, I know). Aaron Rodgers is great, but he really doesn’t have many receiving weapons, and there’s only so far Aaron Jones/ AJ Dillon can carry them. The Bills will come into this rested from the bye, which will help too.
| Week 9 | Sunday Nov. 6 |
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at New York Jets | WIN (6-2) |
Yes, the Jets will be better, but, no, I can’t predict them to beat this Bills team. Maybe they can keep it close? Maybe.
| Week 10 | Sunday Nov. 13 |
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vs Minnesota Vikings | WIN (7-2) |
This is another tough one. With Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook, the Vikings certainly have the offense to make the Bills sweat. However, the key will be a Vikings defense that has struggled with consistency over the last few years. If this turns into a track meet, I have more faith in the Bills’ defense to make one or two crucial stops.
| Week 11 | Sunday Nov. 20 |
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vs Cleveland Browns | LOSS (7-3) |
Will Deshaun Watson be the quarterback by this time? It seems that way. Will it be enough for the Browns to win? Possibly. This is a rough two-game stretch for Buffalo, and I can easily see them dropping one of these two games, especially after also having to play Green Bay weeks earlier. This just strikes me as a game where Bills fans tear their hair out as Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt continue to rack up first downs on the ground.
| Week 11 | Thursday Nov. 24 |
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at Detroit Lions | Win (8-3) |
The Bills love nationally televised games. They also are just far superior to this Lions team. The Lions have a bright future, but I don’t think it’s now.
| Week 12 | Thursday Dec. 1 |
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at New England Patriots | WIN (9-3) |
I know people are high on the Patriots, but I’m just not so sure. To me, they’re the third-best team in this division. Aside from the blizzard game last year, the Bills so thoroughly dominated this team that it’s hard to see them losing.
| Week 13 | Sunday Dec. 11 |
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vs New York Jets | WIN (10-3) |
Sorry Jets fans. Maybe next year.
| Week 14 | Saturday Dec. 17 |
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vs Miami Dolphins | WIN (11-3) |
I could maybe see the Dolphins stealing a win in Miami, but it’s hard to envision them coming into Buffalo this late in the season with the Bills potentially playing for home-field advantage and stealing this game.
| Week 15 | Saturday Dec. 24 |
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at Chicago Bears | WIN (12-3) |
Christmas Eve Day in Chicago? I certainly hope the Bills have their running game in order because I can’t imagine the weather is going to cooperate. This is one of those games where we can see Justin Fields make a big play and steal a win if the Bills let an inferior opponent hang around too long.
| Week 16 | Monday Jan. 2 |
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at Cincinnati Bengals | LOSS (12-4) |
I don’t necessarily think the Bengals are a better team, but I think they are a really good team that has the talent to beat this Bills squad. Traveling into Cincinnati, the week before playing New England at home is a tough ask, and I think this becomes one of those rallying cry losses after five straight wins that the team uses for playoff motivation.
| Week 17 | Sunday Jan. 8 |
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vs New England Patriots | WIN (13-4) |
Last game of the season. After a loss. At home. Versus their rivals. I just don’t see the Bills coming out flat here.
I know 13-4 might not be quite what Buffalo Bills fans are expecting coming into this season, but after years of falling short in the big moments, I’m trying to keep expectations in check. A 13-4 regular season record could still lead to a #1 or #2 seed in the AFC playoffs and a Super Bowl birth and win, but the ultimate victory isn’t just going to be handed to the Buffalo Bills.
