Two California playoff contenders do battle when the Los Angeles Chargers travel north to take on the San Francisco 49ers.
Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-4)
Game Details:
- Location: Levi;’s Stadium in San Francisco, CA
- Time: Sunday, November 13th at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Channel: NBC
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: SF (-350), LAC (+275)
- SPREAD: SF -7.5
- OVER/UNDER: 45
Preview:
Any discussion about this game starts with the Chargers’ injury report. It will be yet another week where Los Angeles will be without receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Those are obviously two big losses that drastically reshape how they will attack the San Francisco defense.
Mainly, Los Angeles will rely on running back Austin Ekeler, who has 10 touchdowns on the season, six rushing and four receiving. That puts him in a tie with Cleveland’s Nick Chubb for the most touchdowns in the NFL; however, Ekeler has averaged just 3.1 yards per carry in the last three games as teams key in on him. That’s bad news against a 49ers’ defense that is the best in the NFL against the run, allowing just 86.1 yards per game.
However, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has used Ekeler a lot in the screen game with both Williams and Allen out. While it has been effective, it means that Herbert has averaged just 4.3 completed air yards per attempt on the year, which is the second-lowest in the NFL and makes this offense a bit less dynamic, even if Herbert is averaging 275.1 yards per game during that same stretch.
When he does take shots down the field, he’s working with second-year receiver Joshua Palmer, who had a career-high 106 receiving yards against the Falcons last week, slot receiver DeAndre Carter, and tight end Gerald Everett, who has 32 catches on the season.
The Chargers have been able to remain moderately effective on offense because they’ve allowed only 10 sacks, which is the fewest in football. However, this 49ers’ defense is also 8th in DVOA against the pass, so there is really no easy way to attack them.
Of course, San Francisco has dealt with injuries of their own this week with cornerback Jason Verrett and defensive end Arik Armstead both being rule out for this game. Getting Verrett back was going to be important for San Francisco, who lost starter Emmanuel Moseley to a torn ACL in Week 5.
However, the Chargers also have defensive injuries of their own with star pass rusher Joey Bosa and cornerback J.C. Jackson both on IR. The defense has struggled on the field this year too, ranking 29th in DOVA against the run and allowing 5.7 yards per carry, which is the worst mark in the NFL.
That’s good news for Christian McCaffrey and this San Francisco offense that we know wants to run the ball in a number of different ways. Receiver/running back Deebo Samuel will also return from injury this week, so they should have their whole complement of weapons, which will make things hard on this Chargers’ defense.
With defenses keying in on CMC and Deebo and George Kittle, Jimmy Garroppolo should continue to be effective. Last week against the Rams, he went 21-of-25 for 235 yards and two touchdowns and should be able to be the type of game manager who can keep this offense humming against any defense.
Picks:
Player Props:
George Kittle under 42.5 receiving yards
The downside of all the options in San Francisco is that Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle all have to battle for targets in an offense that we know likes to run. The additional bad news for Kittle is that he will likely see a lot of safety Derwin James in coverage. James is a legit defender who allows just 6.6 yards per reception. The last time Deebo sat out, in Week 8, Kittle had five targets and three catches for 39 yards. I think we’ll see something similar on Sunday night.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-115) ON DRAFTKINGS
Deandre Carter over 35.5 receiving yards
We mentioned above that DeAndre Carter and Josh Palmer are the main receiving options for Los Angeles this week. Last week, despite being sick, Carter caught five passes and has a team-leading 6.4 air yards per reception since Week 6, which means he could get this total in one play. NFL Network writer Michelle Magdziuk also expects Charvarius Ward to be on Palmer most of the game and Ward is a legit fantastic cover corner. “The 49ers have been real real bad against the slot this year” so this could be a Carter game.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-118) ON BETRIVERS
Austin Ekeler over 41.5 receiving yards
We talked about this a lot above, but Ekeler has been the key receiver for the Chargers in a game where I believe they will need to throw a lot. This doesn’t seem like a big hill for him to climb.
