The number one seed in the AFC takes the field for the first time in the 2023 playoffs when the Kansas City Chefs take on the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. We break down our top player props from the showdown.
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
Game Details:
- Location: Arrowhead Stadium
- Time: Saturday, January 21st at 4:30 pm – ET
- Channel: NBC
Betting Stats
- Spread: KC -8.5
- Moneyline: KC (-480), JAX (+360)
- Over/Under: 53
If you want to read the full game preview, we covered it here.
Top Player Props:
If you’re going to be betting on action besides the spread, here are three player props we like from Sunday afternoon’s game:
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling – OVER 30.5 Receiving Yards
With Mecole Hardman likely not playing for the Chiefs, it’s an excellent time to look around the Kansas City receiving room. Over the last two weeks, Valdes-Scantling has just 55 total receiving yards on thirteen targets, but that’s not the whole story.
According to PFF.com, Valdes-Scantling ranks 19th in the NFL on routes of 20+ yards. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars have the lowest grade in pass coverage of any playoff team remaining in the AFC. Those two things, and his uptick in targets, give me confidence in a modest day from M.V.S.
With the anecdotal knowledge of the former Green Bay Packer’s prowess over the top, this could turn into a one-catch wonder, and you could be counting your money early Saturday evening.
Where to bet: head over to FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get M.V.S. o/30.5 receiving yards for -114 odds
Travis Kelce – OVER 81.5 Receiving Yards
You’ll laugh at Vegas when I tell you that the last time these two teams met in Week 10, Kelce registered 81 yards receiving. That’s eerie.
While Jacksonville’s defense has allowed 68.6 yards per game to tight ends on the season, things could have been better of late. Since Week 10 and the last time they played the Chiefs, that number has jumped to 87.9 YPG. I poured over the injury reports and even the list of tight ends they faced prior, but it’s just a regression to the Jacksonville mean.
I also like Kelce as an anytime touchdown scorer, and the story is the same. Since Week 10, the Jaguars have allowed seven touchdowns at the hands of the tight end. They’d allowed just one in the nine weeks prior. A big day from Kelce could be on the horizon.
Where to bet: this one is available on DraftKings o/u 79.5 yards (-125), but you’re getting better odds on FanDuel at -114
Trevor Lawrence – UNDER 23.5 completions
This number of completions for Lawrence might be slightly inflated after he threw the ball 47 times in their playoff victory against the Chargers.
And although the second-year quarterback averages 23.1 completions per game, I think it will be harder to get going against the 11th-ranked passing defense of the Chiefs.
Even if you believe the Chiefs go up big and the Jaguars are forced to throw the ball, this o/u feels suspiciously close to the Vegas’ guess, and the public will likely be all in on the over. I would fade here and maybe also invest in o/0.5 interceptions which you can find on DraftKings for -150.
Where to bet: we’re mixing it up and using that $5 Free Bet on DraftKings to wager against Lawrence at -105 odds.
