College football: Best bets, picks for Week 5

The 2022 college football season finally gives us some match-ups worth drooling over. We’re entering ranked conference play as most FCS schools collect their paychecks and head home until next fall.

With the Georgia Bulldogs clinging to their spot atop the mountain, fans should be on alert for a shakeup in the AP Top-Ten come Sunday. This Saturday features five Top-25 ranked match-ups, including the three we’re about to discuss.

So where better to start than the SEC and an Alabama team that feels more human now than they have in the past decade? Here are our best bets for week five of the college football season. Roll Tide.

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Alabama (2) @ Arkansas (20)

Speaking of drooling, how about some pork?

The Arkansas Razorbacks saw their top-ten standing dissipate following a doomed doink against Texas A&M last week. I don’t think things get much better against Nick Saban.

The national media’s sleeping on Alabama following their brush up with Texas. Still, with one of the brightest quarterbacks in the nation, Bryce Young, Alabama has managed at least 55 points in three of their four college football games this season.

And the Arkansas ground game isn’t getting going against an Alabama team that’s ranked fourth in the NCAA in rushing defense after allowing only 250 rushing yards total this season. They’re holding opposing teams to 1.84 rushing yards per attempt.

It’s early in the season, and we need to take the statistics with a grain of salt, but we have to work with what we have, and Alabama has performed as expected against lesser opponents.

Arkansas still deserves credit for their 9th-ranked rushing attack, but on Saturday, it never gets going, and the Alabama Crimson Tide rolls.

Best Bet: Alabama -17.5 (-104) & O60.5 (-114) – Parlay (+216) I FanDuel Sportsbook

Kentucky (7) @ Ole Miss (14)

If you believe Will Levis is bound for NFL glory, he shouldn’t have any problems with Lane Kiffen and Ole Miss. Right?

Levis might not even be the story of this game because this Kentucky defense has been dominant, especially on third down. Opposing teams are converting on third down just 24% of the time against Bob Stoops’s defense.

Conversely, Ole Miss is converting on third down in college football games this season at about a 50% clip, so it’ll be interesting to see how Jaxson Dart (the best quarterback name I’ve ever heard) and Kiffin’s offense respond to one of the most efficient defenses in the country.

More good news for Kentucky, their star running back, Chris Rodriguez, will make his return from a four-game suspension. A season ago, Rodriguez averaged 6.1 yards per rush, and Levis will welcome him back to a ground game ranked 123rd in the FBS.

The day ends with Kentucky delusionally believing they can hang with Alabama and Georgia, but a nice win on the road against the NCAA’s fourth-best rushing offense.

Best Bet: Kentucky Moneyline (+225) I PointsBet

NC State (10) @ Clemson (5)

Things might get sloppy in the 7:30p Primetime spot on ABC. This game will likely feel the effects of Hurricane Ian as the rain makes its way north of Florida.

And although this remains the most highly anticipated ACC match-up of 2022, it’s hard to score in gusts that could eclipse 70 mph heading into the weekend. That’s why we like the under-point total (o/u42).

Clemson’s had a surprisingly balanced offense this season. For their 145 passing attempts, they’ve rushed the ball 152 times, and they’ve been relatively above average at both.

Even with the apparent breakout of DJ Uiagalelei, 371 yards, five touchdown passes against Wake Forest (21), a Clemson ground game averaging 183.5 YPG will need to carry the load in the rain.

It still won’t be enough for a high-scoring affair, but Clemson wins at home, where they haven’t lost to NC State since 2002.