The Green Bay Packers are in a must-win situation when they travel to Philadelphia to take on the NFC-leading Eagles.
Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
Game Details:
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA
- Time: Sunday, November 27th at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Channel: NBC
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: PHI (-292), GB (+235)
- SPREAD: PHI -6.5
- OVER/UNDER: 46
Preview:
While the Eagles may lead the NFC with a 9-1 record, they have certainly not been playing their best football lately. They had to score 14 fourth-quarter points to come back and beat the Colts and that was just a week after losing to Washington. Two of their three lowest yardage outputs have come in the last two weeks, so this desperate Packers team will be looking to take advantage.
However, Green Bay hasn’t really been playing any better. They are 27th in the NFL in turnover differential and 20th in penalties, but it’s their run defense in particular that could be the issue on Sunday night.
Green Bay ranks 24th in run defense, allowing 135.8 yards per game, and they are 21st in yards per carry, allowing 4.6 yards per rush. They also rank 29th in run-stop win rate and are dead last in adjusted line yards, so this seems to be a terrible matchup against a Philadelphia team that has the 4th best-scoring offense in the NFL on the back of the 6th-best rushing attack.
Miles Sanders leads the team with 757 yards on the ground on 4.9 yards per carry with six rushing touchdowns. Kenneth Gainwell has also chipped in 129 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground, while Jalen Hurts has 440 yards rushing and eight touchdowns.
However, the Packers have done well against running quarterbacks this season, allowing 40 rushes for just 112 yards and one score. That means Jalen Hurts may have to do more of his damage through the air, which plays into Green Bay’s hands since they are 4th in the NFL against the pass.
Without Dallas Goedert, that means somebody else is going to need to step up for Philadelphia aside from A.J. Brown, who leads the team with both 785 yards and six touchdowns. He and DeVonta Smith (559 yards, three touchdowns) could have their hands full with the Green Bay secondary.
Yet, the Eagles also seem to have an advantage on defense since this Packers offense hasn’t been firing on all cylinders this season. They are 14th in the NFL in rushing and just 19th in passing despite being led by Aaron Rodgers.
The offseason trade of Davante Adams has left the Packers without much in the receiving game. Allen Lazard leads the team with 529 yards and five touchdowns and rookie Christian Watson has begun to breakout of late, scoring five touchdowns in just the last two games. However, the Eagles have two excellent cornerbacks in Darius Slay and James Bradberry, and rank 2nd in the NFL against the pass, allowing a league-leading 4.7 yards per pass attempt.
That’s just the beginning of where this Eagles’ defense shines. Philly is also 1st in the NFL in turnover rate, 3rd in the NFL in sacks, 11th in tackles for a loss, 6th in the rate of offensive drives that end in a score, and 2nd in pass rush win rate.
The Eagles have struggled against good rushing attacks since Jordan Davis was hurt, but they also just signed massive defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph before the Colts game. With those two on the field against Indianapolis, the Colts rushed for under three yards per carry. If they get more snaps on Sunday night, it could be tough sledding for Aaron Jones, who leads the Packers with 778 yards rushing but has only two touchdowns.
In fact, the Packers as a team have only four touchdowns on the ground all season, which isn’t going to cut it against an Eagles defense that is so stingy against the pass.
Pick:
Eagles 27 Packers 16
Player Props:
Miles Sanders over 65.5 rushing yards
We talked about Green Bay’s issues against the run above, so I’m in on this Sanders prop for this game.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-115) ON BETMGM
Jalen Hurts under 226.5 passing yards
I think Philadelphia will have success in this game on the ground, but I think the Packers are coming to fight because this game is basically their season. Their secondary is good, so I don’t expect a big passing day for Hurts.
SPORTSBOOK: BET AVAILABLE AT (-115) ON DRAFTKINGS
Randall Cobb over 32.5 receiving yards
We know this Philadelphia secondary is good, which means Rodgers won’t be able to push the ball down the field a lot. However, it does mean he’ll be forced to check down and work underneath, which is good news for Cobb, who Rodgers still loves. After coming back from an injury, Cobb had six catches for 73 yards in Week 11, so I think this receiving total is too low.
