True to form, the Mets’ biggest question mark heading into 2024, the bullpen, has been their largest disappointment and it is Edwin Diaz — the arm that was considered to be the most reliable — that has almost singlehandedly sabotaged New York’s playoff push.
Leading 5-4, reliever Phil Maton rebounded from a lead-off walk of Lourdes Gurriel by recording the next two outs before manager Carlos Mendoza called upon Diaz for a four-out save.
New York’s closer would get nowhere near the ninth, however. He walked Pavin Smith and Geraldo Perdomo before Corbin Carroll hit a grand slam, lifting Arizona to an 8-5 win and providing yet another gut punch to the Mets’ postseason hopes.
It was the second time in as many appearances that Diaz allowed a game-winner. He gave up a walk-off solo home run to San Diego Padres rookie sensation Jackson Merrill on Aug. 25 — a night in which reliever Jose Butto squandered a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the eighth by serving up a Jurickson Profar two-run shot.
The wheels continue to fall off for Diaz, who has been a shell of the dominant 2022 version that struck out more than half of the batters he faced (118 punchouts) while posting a 1.31 ERA with 32 saves and 18 walks.
In 37.2 innings this season — his first after recovering from a freak knee injury at the World Baseball Classic in March 2023 — Diaz has already doled out 15 free passes and seven home runs (he gave up three in 2022) with a 4.07 ERA.
Any inclination that he could record a four-out save should also be abandoned. In the four appearances that he has made in the eighth inning this season, amounting to a total of 12 batters faced in 1.2 innings pitched, Diaz has allowed six runs on two hits and five walks.
The main culprit of his regression has been his main pitch, the slider. After opposing batters posted a .114 average against it in 2022, they are now batting .213 off of it this year. The analytics are similar between the two seasons. It is dropping an identical 28.8 inches with a horizontal movement that has ever-so-slightly flattened from 1.5 inches of break to 1.1 inches.
However, the main difference is the speed of the pitch and its location. In 2022, it averaged 91 mph. This year, it is at 89.5 mph, per Baseball Savant. Diaz has also had difficulties consistently getting his slider down and in on the opposing batter. Instead, it is hanging in the zone, which is why there have been five home runs hit off the pitch this season as compared to one in 539 sliders thrown in 2022.
“My slider is floating in the zone and I think that’s because I’m driving to third base,” Diaz said (h/t SNY). “I think that’s because I’m driving to third base and just need to go straight to home plate. That’s why I think I’m missing my slider right in the middle.”
