Just when you though Epicenter and Zandon were locked in one of the greatest stretch duels in Kentucky Derby history on Saturday evening, along came Rich Strike — a horse that, as of early Friday morning, wasn’t even in the race.
The also-eligible horse, who qualified for the Derby Friday after the late scratch of Etherial Road, stunned the racing world — and mortified handicappers everywhere — at 81-1 odds to win the 148th run for the roses.
Taking advantage of a blistering early speed duel between the two Japan-based horses in Summer is Tomorrow and Crown Pride, the favorite Epicenter made a big move on the far turn and went in for the kill with a three-wide sweep at the top of the stretch.
Not far behind him was Zandon, another top choice among bettors who was geared up with a major run. At the eighth pole, Epicenter and Zandon were one-two, battling through the stretch in the crown of the Churchill Downs track, the crowd of 150,000-plus in full roar for the first time in three years.
But no one, until the last 100 yards, saw the ghosts of Derby upsets past charging up the inside in the form of Rich Strike. Ridden brilliantly by jockey Sandy Leon, Rich Strike got the trip of his life, weaving through the field from far back, then powering through to the inside of Epicenter and Zandon before catching and passing the frontrunners at the wire.
The shocked crowd fell silent. Bettors and handicappers (full disclosure, this reporter had $20 to win on Epicenter and an exacta bet with Zandon) wailed and gnashed their teeth as dreams of cashing lofty win wagers and exactas went kaput in the flash of a longshot’s stride.
Rich Strike’s victory puts all the other major Derby upsets in history — including Donerail in 1913 and 91-1, and Mine That Bird in 2009 at 50-1 — to shame.
His most previous race was a third-place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (sic) at Turfway Park. He finished 5 1/2 lengths behind the race’s winner, Tiz the Bomb, who ran ninth in the Kentucky Derby.
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Rich Strike ran an 84 Beyer speed figure in the Jeff Ruby Steaks; on Saturday, he won the Derby with a preliminary Beyer of 102, an 18-point improvement.
Prior to winning the Derby, Rich Strike’s last win came at Churchill Downs back in September, a maiden claiming race for two-year-olds that he won by 17 lengths. Although such a dominant juvenile performance foreshadows success later on, it didn’t seem to translate in his next four starts — fifth in the Gun Runner Stakes at the Fairgrounds in December 2021; third in the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway in January, fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway; and the third-place showing in the Jeff Ruby Steaks.
So where did this effort come from?
To paraphrase John Sterling, that’s horse racing. It’s a game where on any given day, a horse and jockey can get the dream trip, run their best race and achieve the impossible — the stats and the odds be damned.
Now Rich Strike stands alone among the current crop of three-year-olds with a chance to win the Triple Crown. He’ll get his opportunity to capture the second leg on Saturday, May 21, in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.
His odds won’t be nearly as long — possibly under 10-1 this time around. But horseplayers might be wary to bet him next time because of the “bounce” — a situation in which a horse runs flat coming off a huge race. With an 18-point improvement in the Beyer figure between the Jeff Ruby Steaks and the Kentucky Derby, how much does Rich Strike have left to win the Preakness?
It’s too early to say what the field will look like. Certainly, a few Derby runners will make the quick turnaround to run in the Preakness. There will be newcomers waiting in the wings such as potentially Early Voting, winner of the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct and second in the Wood Memorial, whose trainer Chad Brown opted to skip the Derby.
One wild card could be Secret Oath, a powerful winner of Friday’s Kentucky Oaks for 86-year-old Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. The filly has run against the boys before, a disappointing third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby.
Ironically, it was Lukas’ scratch of Etherial Road on Friday that opened the door for Rich Strike and trainer Eric Reed to enter the Kentucky Derby, and ultimately win it.
Should Secret Oath win the Preakness and deny Rich Strike a potential Triple Crown opportunity, one could argue that Lukas giveth, and Lukas taketh away.
