The Islanders offseason was going to be hectic enough with the uncertain futures of two prominent names in unrestricted free-agent forwards in Casey Cizikas and Kyle Palmieri — along with major contributors in second-line winger Anthony Beauvillier, goalie of the future Ilya Sorokin, and No. 1 defenseman Adam Pelech due for new deals as restricted free agents.
Their time in Islanders sweaters would have to try and be extended by an organization that currently has approximately $5 million in cap space to get all that done.
Obviously, not a lot of wiggle room to get two — let alone all five — of those deals done.
But the Islanders are getting a lifeline of sorts to clear cap space via the 2021 Expansion Draft on July 21 as the Seattle Kraken is set to enter the NHL as its newest team this fall.
As is customary, the Expansion Draft allows the Kraken to build its roster by choosing one player from each NHL team except the Vegas Golden Knights, who entered the league just four years ago.
While some might think it’s an opportunity for teams to purge fringe talents, the rules of the Expansion Draft allow the Kraken an opportunity to snag some established pieces.
Teams can only protect seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie, or eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goalie from the Expansion Draft. All must be either under contract or their rights must be held by that team in the form of restricted free agency.
Obviously, unrestricted free agents would not have their rights owned by the selecting team as they would be on the open market — meaning you wouldn’t see the Kraken choosing Cizikas or Palmieri if they are still unsigned.
One of those defensemen and two of those forwards left unprotected must have appeared in at least 40 NHL games during the 2021 season or played in at least a combined 70 NHL games over the last two years.
All first and second-year players, along with unsigned draft choices, will be exempt and will not be counted toward a team’s protected list. The list of protected players must be submitted by July 17.
Under such parameters, the Islanders have an opportunity to shed a sizable contract for nothing depending on the Kraken’s course of action.
So how could the Islanders’ expansion draft process play out? Let’s try to play the role of foreteller:
Islanders 2021 Expansion Draft predictions
Protected forwards (7)
- Anders Lee
- 2021-22 salary: $7 million
The Islanders’ captain isn’t going anywhere as the heart and soul of Barry Trotz’s club. Coming back from an ACL injury, Lee is expected to be atop the Islanders’ leading scorers yet again.
- Mathew Barzal
- 2021-22 salary: $7 million
Barzal is the most gifted playmaker of the Islanders and one of the league’s most dangerous skaters. He’s the present and future of the organization.
- Anthony Beauvillier
- 2021-22 salary: Restricted Free Agent (RFA)
While he’s one of the team’s streakiest scorers, Beauvillier is one of the Islanders’ most gifted young forwards and an underrated, effective forechecker. He’s also one of Barzal’s best friends.
- Brock Nelson
- 2021-22 salary: $6 million
The second-line center is a part of the Islanders’ core. With a knack for showing up in the most important games, his veteran experience has made him a leader on this team.
- Jean-Gabriel Pageau
- 2021-22 salary: $5 million
One of the most valuable trade-deadline acquisitions in franchise history, Pageau has five years left on a deal that has bolstered the Islanders’ center depth as one of the top units in the league.
- Jordan Eberle
- 2021-22 salary: $5.5 million
Eberle was a no-show in the Islanders’ run to the Stanley Cup semifinals this year, but he’s still one of the team’s better offensive threats.
- Josh Bailey
- 2021-22 salary: $5 million
The longest-tenured Islander is going to be an Islander for life and will probably have his jersey number hung in the rafters one day. He’s not going anywhere.
Unprotected forwards
- Andrew Ladd
- 2021-22 salary: $4.375 million
Appealing or Not?: Not (contract, lack of production)
- Austin Czarnik
- 2021-22 salary: $725K
Appealing or Not?: Not (lack of playing time)
- Cal Clutterbuck
- 2021-22 salary: $4.375 million
Appealing or Not?: Not (contract, fourth-liner, UFA next year, doesn’t want to leave NYI)
- Leo Komarov
- 2021-22 salary: $4.375 million
Appealing or Not?: Not (contract, lack of production)
- Matt Martin
- 2021-22 salary: $1.5 million
Appealing or Not?: Not (contract, doesn’t want to leave NYI)
- Ross Johnston
- 2021-22 salary: $1 million
Appealing or Not?: Not (lack of production)
- Kieffer Bellows
- 2021-22 salary: RFA
Appealing or Not?: Appealing (young talent, offensive upside)
- Otto Koivula
- 2021-22 salary: RFA
Appealing or Not?: Appealing (young talent, big frame)
- Michael Dal Colle
- 2021-22 salary: RFA
Appealing or Not?: Not (lack of production)
- Casey Cizikas
- 2021-22 salary: UFA
- Kyle Palmieri
- 2021-22 salary: UFA
- Travis Zajac
- 2021-22 salary: UFA
Exempt Forward
Oliver Wahlstrom (2 NHL seasons)
Biggest question
Eberle’s dud in the playoffs isn’t the best note to go into the offseason with, especially for a player who is making $5.5 million. That’s sizable money that could be taken off the books if he’s made available to Seattle.
That contract would be the first to be pointed at if the Islanders want to protect one of their younger forwards like Bellows or Koivula — though Bellows seemed to fall out of favor with Trotz as the 2021 season progressed.
Protected defensemen
- Adam Pelech
- 2021-22 salary: RFA
The unquestioned No. 1 defenseman of the Islanders, Pelech received some Norris Trophy consideration and it wouldn’t be surprising if he won that award sooner rather than later.
- Ryan Pulock
- 2021-22 salary: $5 million
Pulock is the second half of one of the very best defensive pairings in the NHL alongside Pelech. A developing defensive game headlined by “The Save” in Game 4 of the semifinals is complementing a two-way game that features one of the most fearsome shots in the league.
- Scott Mayfield
- 2021-22 salary: $1.45 million
A second-pairing defenseman, Mayfield has become one of the centerpieces of the Islanders’ staunch defense.
Unprotected defensemen
- Nick Leddy
- 2021-22 salary: $5.5 million
Appealing or Not?: Appealing (two-way game, playoff/Stanley Cup experience)
- Sebastian Aho
- 2021-22 salary: $725K
Appealing or Not?: Appealing (young, two-way game)
- Thomas Hickey
- 2021-22 salary: $1.375 million
Appealing or Not?: Not (age, injury history)
- Braydon Coburn
- 2021-22 salary: UFA
- Andy Greene
- 2021-22 salary: UFA
Exempt Defenseman
Noah Dobson (2 NHL seasons)
Protected Goalie
- Semyon Varlamov
- 2021-22 salary: $5 million
Normally, this would be a no-brainer, and it likely will be. Varlamov has experienced the most success in the Islanders’ net since Billy Smith and set a franchise record with seven shutouts in 2021. But that $5 million price tag is a big one and with Ilya Sorokin ready to receive the torch sooner rather than later, dangling Varlamov could be considered an option. Granted, it’s very unlikely that happens.
Exempt Goalie
- Ilya Sorokin (1 NHL season)
- 2021-22 salary: RFA
Who does Seattle pick?
Nick Leddy
Leddy is only 30 years old but has a Stanley Cup title to his name and 121 games of playoff experience under his belt. One of the top skaters as a defenseman in the league, Leddy has the intangibles to lead and produce for an expansion team like Seattle. In the meantime, getting his $5.5 million coming off the books would provide the Islanders with some much-needed wiggle room in their books.
If not Leddy, then who?
Kieffer Bellows/Jordan Eberle
While Bellows might not be in Trotz’s favor right now, there’s no denying that the 23-year-old has a scoring touch the Islanders could develop and utilize. It’s also the type of young talent that Seattle would obviously be interested in.
If the Islanders choose to protect Bellows — which I see as unlikely right now — Eberle and his $5.5 million contract would be most likely to be exposed by the Islanders. With a career 82-game average of 26 goals, that’s another appealing talent for the Kraken to consider.
