The John Deere Classic is upon us. My Custom model has accurately predicted 4 of the last 8 PGA Tour winners, and has provided us with some great deep-value plays along the way. With a weaker field than most, this tournament provides plenty of opportunities to play those underdogs knowing that they have a greater chance of winning.
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John Deere Classic deep-value picks
Adam Schenk +5500
He’s not the biggest underdog in the world, but this is a relatively weak field and Adam Schenk has had a lot of success at the John Deere Classic, with two top-5’s in this event. He grades out as my 41st-rated golfer, but has been playing pretty poorly as of late. If there’s ever a bounce-back spot, it’s at a course where he’s thrived in the past.
Kelly Kraft +15000
Kraft is going to be a volatile play, but he’s a golfer who gains in the three areas I value most this week: GIR, and approaches from medium to long distances. His putting has been excellent but he’s yet to marry that up with a birdie-or-better percentage. With that said, he’s still inside my top-40 golfers and could spring a surprise this weekend if he can take advantage of a course that should play to his strengths.
Brice Garnett +20000
My highest-graded value pick this week, Garnett is my 11th-best value golfer. He comes in only three strokes behind Webb Simpson (+1800) in my model and the only things stopping him from rising higher are his recent form and neutral approach play. However, he gains o.57 shots to the field on approach around correlated courses. He could be a great lotto ticket play this week.
David Lingmerth/Seung-Yul Noh +30000
If you want even deeper lotto ticket plays, then look no further. Lingmerth is actually my 14th-graded golfer so is well worth a punt here. His recent form averages out at P68 over his last 10 events, but this field here is significantly weaker than we’re used to seeing and that may pave the way for a sneaky good finish.
As for Noh, he’s heating up at the right time. He ranks among the better golfers in hitting GIR and has over 90 value points in both approach metrics I’m using. It may convert on a course where those traits will separate the men from the boys, given the wide fairways give everyone a level playing field.
Don’t forget if you want to bet on this weekend’s action, you can get a risk-free $1,000 bet, AND a free $50 bet for signing up to DraftKings here!
Photo by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire
