The Kentucky Derby goes off Saturday night on or about 6:57 p.m., and by the time the clock strikes 7 p.m., we should know who the winner is.
But after weeks of watching prep races, analyzing post positions, and seeing who’s in and who’s out, it’s time to try and figure out for ourselves who will become the 149th Kentucky Derby champion ahead of time.
The 20-horse field includes Forte, last year’s juvenile champion who’s won four straight starts; Angel of Empire, the fast-closing Arkansas Derby winner; Tapit Trice, the blossoming threat and Blue Grass Stakes champion; Kingsbarns, the Louisiana Derby winner looking to steal the roses on the lead; and Derma Sotogake, the intriguing UAE Derby champion from Japan looking to make all sorts of history.
But the complexion of the field was seriously upended Thursday with three scratches, including Lord Miles, the Wood Memorial winner trained by Saffie Joseph Jr.
On Thursday afternoon, Churchill Downs management announced Joseph’s indefinite suspension following the sudden deaths of two other horses which he trains at the facility earlier this week. All of his horses scheduled to run at the track this weekend have been scratched.
Bill Mudd, president and CEO of Churchill Downs, said in a statement that the company had concerns about the safety and conditioning of the equines in Joseph’s care; the track has experienced two other horse fatalities this week, marring what’s normally an upbeat week ahead of the Kentucky Derby.
Lord Miles’ scratch from the Kentucky Derby opened the door for the also-eligible Mandarin Hero, who finished second in the Santa Anita Derby, to enter the race. He’ll get the 22 saddlecloth and break from the farthest-outside post.
Earlier on Thursday, Practical Move, the Santa Anita Derby champion, was scratched by trainer Tim Yakteen after spiking a fever, according to the Daily Racing Form. That moved Cyclone Mischief, third in the Florida Derby, into the Kentucky Derby field as the 21 horse.
And then on Thursday night, Continuar was scratched from the race by trainer Yoshito Yahagi, who was not impressed with his conditioning, the Daily Racing Form reported. As a result, King Russell — the Arkansas Derby runner-up and last also-eligible Kentucky Derby entrant — made the field as the 23 horse.
In all, the field is loaded with quality and promise, but those traits alone aren’t enough to win the Kentucky Derby. Whoever the winner is will have the ability to overcome the crush of horses in that first quarter-mile after the gates spring open; utilize tactical speed; display the stamina to get the full 1 ¼ miles distance; show tenacity when challenged; and, yes, find good fortune along the way – because even regally-bred colts need a little luck to win America’s most famous race.
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The 149th Kentucky Derby
Saturday, May 6
Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Post time 6:57 p.m.
Coverage on NBC begins at 12 p.m.
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Analysis
Forecasters are expecting dry conditions in Louisville this Saturday, so a fast track is likely. The Churchill Downs oval has been known to play very fast for championship days like Derby Day, creating conditions ideal for blistering early fractions in recent runnings.
We see two possible ways in which this race shakes out.
1. Wire-to-wire
The three horses that figure to go for the lead from the start – Kingsbarns, Derma Sotogake and Jace’s Road – don’t have the reputation for being rabbits. They could fall victim to a speedy track and run faster than they ever have, but the expectation here is that they will set a reasonable tempo – think a 23 second first quarter, followed by the first half-mile in 46 seconds and change.
But the scratch of Practical Move on Thursday was a big blow to the race’s speed form — he had been the only entrant with two triple-digit Beyer speed figures. Unless Cyclone Mischief decides to play the rabbit from the far outside (an unlikely scenario), the conditions for a wire-to-wire Derby winner appear even more likely.
If Kingsbarns or Derma Sotogake get away with a first half-mile of 47 seconds or longer, both of them will be difficult to catch in the end. Think War Emblem in the 2002 Derby; he went to the lead, controlled the pace and had plenty in the tank left in his wire-to-wire victory. The second- and third-place finishers, Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift, had followed him all the way around the racetrack.
In such a scenario in this year’s Derby, the edge goes to Kingsbarns at a really nice price. He’s undefeated in three starts, bred to run all day, and has gained speed with every start, though his performances were not as fast as other competitors in this race.
Still, Derma Sotogake could pull it off, and if he does, he’ll be overcoming a lot of adversity. No UAE Derby winner has ever hit the board in the Kentucky Derby; asking a horse to run the best race of his life after traveling halfway around the world within five weeks is a lot. He also got a big break with Practical Move’s scratch; though he’ll have the 17 saddlecloth, he’ll spring from the gate from the 16th stall. Longshot Rocket Can will instead break from stall 17, which has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner.
2. Closing fast
The more likely outcome, however, is that a modest speed duel develops in the early part of the Kentucky Derby, and the winner comes from off the pace to capture the big races.
In this scenario, it’s really, really hard to bet against Forte. Everything seems to point to him as a Derby champion. Four wins in five starts. A solid distance pedigree. Having the best jockey and trainer in America in Irad Ortiz Jr. and Todd Pletcher, respectively. The ownership of Vinnie Viola and Queens native Mike Repole, two of the most prolific horsemen in America.
But beyond all that, his Florida Derby was a revelation. While some alleged he took a step back in terms of speed, the fact that he won the race after overcoming traffic trouble and a far-outside post at Gulfstream Park with that short run into the first turn spoke volumes about Forte’s ability.
The Kentucky Derby is notorious for traffic trouble, but unless Forte gets seriously bumped at the start (a possibility for any horse that isn’t running from the furthest outside posts) or takes a terrible step out of the gate, he has no excuses to overcome that trouble.
His biggest threat is Angel of Empire, the Brad Cox trainee who won the Arkansas Derby and has improved start after start. His closing kick under jockey Flavien Prat in that race was authoritative. If anyone beats Forte this Saturday under this scenario, it’ll be Angel of Empire because he would have evolved even more in terms of speed and stamina, and proved even better than Forte.
One longshot I’ll throw in here is Disarm. The Kentucky Derby will be his third start in six weeks, but he seems to have the ideal ability and pedigree to contend. His modest run in the Lexington Stakes, a full furlong shorter than his previous start in the Louisiana Derby, got him the points needed to make the Kentucky Derby field, though it wasn’t impressive. However, he’ll get another 1 ½ furlongs this Saturday to uncork a big rally and try to give trainer Steve Asmussen, who was denied by a longshot his first Derby win last year, and jockey Joel Rosario the chance to turn the tables on favorites like Forte and Angel of Empire this year.
If you don’t like Disarm as a longshot play, then try Mandarin Hero, who only made the Kentucky Derby field Thursday. His second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby was solid in his U.S. debut, and he has plenty of speed to come from off the pace. He’ll be breaking from the far outside, but looms large as an upset threat, especially if the early pace is unreasonably hot.
Top five win plays for the Kentucky Derby:
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Forte (likely favorite)
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Angel of Empire (biggest threat)
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Kingsbarns (wire-to-wire threat)
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Derma Sotogake (another wire-to-wire threat)
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Disarm (huge longshot)
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