Pete Alonso’s market continues to shrink and now, the New York Mets appear as though they are moving on from their former franchise slugger.
The 30-year-old first baseman and his agent, Scott Boras, have misplayed the market. The hope of a long-term deal worth over $200 million quickly went up in smoke, and now, a shorter-term deal cannot be found with the last few circling clubs.
Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns has remained firm on his stance regarding Alonso potentially reuniting with the Mets. He reportedly offered a three-year deal in the $68 million to $70 million range with an opt-out after the first year that Alonso rejected, signaling that it very well could be time to move on. This after Alonso said he was willing to accept a three-year deal with opt-outs only from the Mets.
The latest proposal would pay Alonso more money annually than the seven-year, $158 million extension sent his way by former general manager Billy Epper during the summer of 2023. That extension offer would have paid him an average annual value (AAV) of $22.5 million. Stearns’ three-year, $70 million offer would have paid him $23.3 million per year.
Alonso and Boras likely consider this an underpay, but a contract with that AAV would have put him near the top of all first basemen in baseball.
Only four first basemen make more than an average of $23.3 million annually on their contracts.
The Toronto Blue Jays and superstar slugger Vladimir Guerrero avoided arbitration this winter by settling on a one-year, $28.5 million before he potentially hits free agency next offseason. Guerrero is five years younger than Alonso and has a batting average that is 45 points higher and an OPS that is 52 points higher since the start of the 2021 season.
Freddie Freeman is arguably the greatest first baseman of this generation, an MVP, and a two-time World Series champion. He is making $27 million AAV with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Kris Bryant’s disastrous contract with the Colorado Rockies pays him $26 million per year, and Bryce Harper makes an average of $25.3 million per season with the Philadelphia Phillies. But both were not signed to their big free-agent deals as first basemen. Bryant started life in Colorado in left field while Harper was signed as a right fielder.
Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson, who has not missed a game in the first three years of his eight-year, $168 million deal with the Atlanta Braves, has averaged 39 home runs and 113 RBI since the start of the 2022 season. He averages $21 million annually.
There is an obvious premium on power, and the Alonso/Boras partnership will continue to stress that throughout the final days of this free-agent process. No one in the National League has hit more home runs than Alonso since his MLB debut in 2019. His 586 RBI also ranked No. 1 among any first baseman over the last six years.
The rest of his offensive output is nowhere near that level. His .249 average ranks 23rd among qualified first basemen during that span. His .339 on-base percentage is 14th, and only Olson has struck out more than him. His defensive WAR of -4.5 is 44th, even with a top-tier scooping ability at first.
Consider that with a 2024 season that saw him post career-worst numbers in a full season — 34 home runs, 88 RBI, and a .788 OPS — it does not feel as though the Mets have lowballed one of their top homegrown products.
