The hot stove is officially starting to warm, and with it comes our 2024-25 MLB free agent predictions.
The Mets and Yankees are expected to be in the conversation for some of the biggest names available, notably Juan Soto and Pete Alonso. However, numerous pitchers on the open market should receive the attention of both New York clubs.
We rank the top five free agents this winter and predict where they will go and how much they might make.
2024-25 MLB free agent predictions
1. Juan Soto, RF
- 2024 team: New York Yankees
- 2024 stats: .288/.419/.569 (.989 OPS), 41 HR, 109 RBI
- Next team: New York Mets
- Contract: 13 years, $650 million
The crown jewel of the free-agent market will move across the Big Apple to Queens after Steve Cohen and David Stearns win the bidding war for the 26-year-old superstar.
Just moments after losing the World Series with the Yankees, Soto suggested that the Yankees do not hold an advantage over any of the other 29 teams that could come knocking at his door in free agency, meaning he will go to the highest bidder that also provides the promise of winning.
The Mets tick both of those boxes off. They were one of the biggest surprises in Major League Baseball this season by making a run to the NLCS, pushing the eventual champion Los Angeles Dodgers to six games before bowing out. For a generational talent of Soto’s caliber, it is likely that no price set by his agent, Scott Boras, would be too high for Cohen, as the promise of a top-of-the-lineup duo of Francisco Lindor and Soto could fuel the Mets for the next decade.
The Yankees, of course, cannot be discounted in all of this, but owner Hal Steinbrenner’s willingness to drop a huge check to retain Soto is still unknown. He said the team’s current payroll situation was not financially sustainable in May. A $600 million-plus contract added to the books will not help.
2. Corbin Burnes, SP
- 2024 team: Baltimore Orioles
- 2024 stats: 15-9, 2.92 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 181 K, 194.1 IP
- Next team: New York Mets
- Contract: 7 years, $210 million
Stearns has stayed away from doling out long-term contracts to starting pitchers for most of his executive career, but the 30-year-old Burnes could provide the exception to that rule.
First of all, he is working with the most financial flexibility he has ever had following a decade with the small-market Milwaukee Brewers and a debut season with the Mets, during which he built an affordable contender while waiting to get out of the shadows of some retained money still on the books.
Burnes got his start in Milwaukee under Stearns and has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball over the last five years, going 52-31 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in 816.2 innings pitched. A durable ace is just what the Mets need after having Kodai Senga for all of 5.1 innings during the 2024 regular season. If they were to retain Sean Manaea, a top three of Burnes, Senga, and Manaea would be one of the better trios in all of baseball, at least on paper.
3. Blake Snell, SP
- 2024 team: San Francisco Giants
- 2024 stats: 5-3, 3.12 ERA, 1.048 WHIP, 145 K, 104.0 IP
- Next team: New York Yankees
- Contract: 5 years, $150 million
Another victim of Boras’ waiting game last winter, Snell was coming off his second-career Cy Young Award only to completely misplay his hand — at least, it seemed that way. He started the season late after signing a two-year deal with the Giants that included an opt-out after 2024, rushed through an abbreviated spring training, and was pummelled in his first three starts. He then landed on the injured list with an adductor strain, came back, and made three more nightmarish starts. On June 2, his EERA was 9.51.
But then it all clicked.
Across his final 14 starts of the season, the 31-year-old southpaw posted a sublime 1.23 ERA while striking out 114 batters in 80.1 innings of work during that span. It was headlined by a no-hitter on Aug. 2 against the Cincinnati Reds in which he struck out 11.
The Yankees showed interest in Snell last winter but could not get things worked out. If they lose Soto, though, they have to supplement it with a couple of big moves that include a bona fide No. 2 arm behind Gerrit Cole. Snell would be just that as he would slot in between the 2023 AL Cy Young winner and Carlos Rodon.
4. Alex Bregman, 3B
- 2024 team: Houston Astros
- 2024 stats: .260/.315/.453 (.768 OPS), 26 HR, 75 RBI
- Next team: Kansas City Royals
- Contract: 7 years, $180 million
Bregman started out much like his Astros in 2024, batting .206 on May 27. He turned it around, batting .288 with an .862 OPS, 22 home runs, and 54 RBI in his final 94 games.
He is still one of the top third basemen in the league at 30 years old, but the Astros’ inability to hand out contracts over six years could spell the end of their relationship — much like it did with George Springer, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Correa.
The Royals are a bit of a wild card here, but they became contenders out of nowhere last season thanks to the continued emergence of Bobby Witt Jr. and the arrival of Seth Lugo, who became a Cy Young candidate in his first season in Kansas City.
Big contracts are not usually a part of the Royals’ business model, but they are in a winnable division, have some really promising pieces to work with, and could use a proven winner like Bregman to come in and help build the culture within the clubhouse. Plus, teaming him up with Witt on the left side of the infield is a pretty impressive combination.
5. Pete Alonso, 1B
- 2024 team: New York Mets
- 2024 stats: .240/.329/.459 (.788 OPS), 34 HR, 88 RBI
- Next team: San Francisco Giants
- Contract: 6 years, $175 million
If the Mets are to land Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, there might not be enough funds to bring their homegrown product back on an extended deal.
Alonso and Boras turned down a seven-year, $158 million contract extension last season but should temper their expectations in hopes of getting a $200 million deal. Still, this is one of the premier sluggers in baseball since he debuted in 2019 and will have no shortage of suitors.
The Giants have money to spend, and they have been involved with some of the big-name free agents in recent years. Perhaps this is the big fish they finally land. However, if the Mets miss out on Soto, I would be shocked to see Alonso playing anywhere else but Queens.
