MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day

New York Mets at San Diego Padres

Over/Under: 8

First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Taijuan Walker (3-1, 2.88 ERA) vs. Yu Darvish (4-3, 4.03 ERA)

The sight of Yu Darvish at home in Padre brown is practically an impenetrable one. Here, that’s the setting for his next start.

Since signing with the Padres prior to last season, Darvish has basically been unhittable within the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park, especially when you contrast his home numbers with what he’s churned out away from San Diego.

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In 21 home starts as a Friar, Darvish has painted a superb 3.03 ERA and 0.89 WHIP while limiting opposing hitters to a real meek .194 batting average. Furthermore, the 35-year-old has logged 10.93 K/9.

Those are incredible stats for a foundation in which to lean on. Not only that, stingy consistency has been on display at Petco, too, as Darvish has limited his adversaries to two earned runs or fewer in 17 of those 22 assignments in front of Padres faithful.

While Darvish sports a bit of uncharacteristic 4.03 ERA at the moment, he’s definitely pitched better than that, illustrated by his 3.47 FIP. Also of note, he hasn’t been issuing this low amount of home runs (0.75 K/9) across a full season since his very first year in the Major Leagues — and that was back in 2012.

Certainly, that can be of use against a Mets batting order filled with mashers. Darvish has already displayed a tendency of handling the ‘Amazins, being 3-0 with a 3.26 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in six career meetings. He’s registered 10.01 K/9 as well.

So we’ll trust the proven Japanese import for one more quality showing in this scenario. But how about Taijuan Walker?

Well, despite a steep drop in strikeout rate (just 4.65 K/9!), Walker is running pretty smoothly in attaining that desirable 2.88 ERA next to his name. Outside of one rough outing in Philadelphia (worth noting they were seeing him for the third straight time), the 10-year vet has been consistent, allowing no more than three runs in his seven other starts this year.

Like his counterpart this evening, Walker can tap into a very pleasuring track record when encountering this opponent. He’s faced San Diego six times, pitching to a blisteringly good 1.97 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Anything close to that would be adored.

Yes, the deflation of K’s might be worrying to at least some but that’s the type of pitcher Walker is now in this post-Tommy John portion of his career that nearly cost him the entirety of two back-to-back campaigns. Since returning for good last year, the 6-foot-4, 235-pound behemoth has adjusted to pitching to contact, even thus far drawing what would be career-best marks across a full season in ground-ball rate (47.8 percent) and ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio (1.56 GB/FB).

The thought of taking an under can be a little intimidating involving either of these offenses, let alone both. However, look what each of these two starters has been doing. Even with most books sinking the total a half run, I still recommend a play if you can’t find 8 out there. 

Pick:

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “30-24-5,” +2.63 units

Yesterday’s Result: Mariners-Astros Under 8.5 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit