MLB Over/Under Bet of the Day: June 2

San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins

Over/Under: 7

First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET

Probable pitchers: Alex Wood (3-4, 4.81 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (5-2, 2.00 ERA)

Simply put, Sandy Alcantara is a man possessed right now. That might be the most proper dignification of his season so far given what he’s been doing as of late.

Across his last four assignments, spanning 32 innings, Alcantara has allowed a total of just three earned runs. He’s also coming off brilliant back-to-back outings against the defending champion Braves, whom he first dusted off with a complete-game victory — the only complete game in the Majors by anyone this season — before logging a career-high 14 K’s in the ensuing meeting.

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Overall, Alcantara has now yielded two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his 10 starts. The one time he didn’t clock in to register this accomplishment was because of a sixth-inning, two-out Julio Rodriguez three-run bomb; otherwise, no one’s been able to get to the flamethrower.

Alcantara’s current surge also pushed him into the league lead for innings pitched, which is especially impressive considering he wields a shiny 2.00 ERA. Although his strikeout rate is down compared to other years, it’s still encouraging that Alcantara has accumulated at least six punch-outs during three of his last five rotation turns.

Additionally, the 26-year-old Dominican native provides plenty of optimism for another stellar effort based on his track record against these Giants. In five career dates, Alcantara holds a 2.76 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Anticipate more strong work while he’s in this district dominant rhythm.

But can we trust the other starter to not get bombed and spoil our bid seeking out a low score? Absolutely. For Alex Wood, this is maybe the worst team in baseball versus left-handers he’ll be encountering.

The veteran southpaw might be entering this evening with an unspectacular 4.81 ERA but he’s definitely been better than that. Unfortunately, Wood has also had to deal with a very unfair .360 batting average on balls put in play against him — something that surely won’t sustain as high — and this sentiment is further supported by his 3.61 FIP and 3.12 xFIP.

This matchup presents the perfect opportunity for Wood to showcase some of his steadiness. Miami ranks dead last in baseball in team OPS (.608) when entangling with left-handed pitching and second-from-the-bottom in batting average (.211). Not only that, their strikeout rate (3.02 AB/K) against lefties is also by far the worst.

The biggest reason for that probably has something to do with being able to neutralize Jazz Chisholm Jr. The electrifying second baseman is just 2-for-23 (.087) with a southpaw on the hill!

Just like his counterpart, Wood also sports a tidy track record when squaring off with this opponent. In 17 career games (14 starts) against the Fish, he’s 8-4 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Trust him here for a similar-type output on this occasion.

Pick:

2022 MLB Over/Under Betting Record*: “27-22-5,” +2 units

Yesterday’s Result: Giants-Phillies Under 8 (“loss”)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit