Atlanta’s shock victory over Inter Miami on Saturday night has blown the MLS Cup wide open, at least in the Eastern Conference.
Each of the four teams remaining in the East will fancy their chances of winning the conference following the first-round eliminations of the top three seeds, with Columbus Crew and FC Cincinnati joining Miami in falling at the first hurdle.
Atlanta United, heavily unfancied at the beginning of the MLS Cup after only reaching the wild card round on the final day of the regular season courtesy of an unlikely win at fourth-placed Orlando City, now has as good a chance as any team of winning the Eastern Conference.
They will have to do it the hard way by replicating their final-day heroics and beating Orlando City on their own patch before winning away from home against the winners of the all-New York semi-final between NYCFC and New York Red Bulls. However, Atlanta has already proved more than capable of producing big results on the road, beating Montreal on penalties in the wild-card round before producing one of the biggest shocks in MLS history at Miami last Saturday.
Orlando City, meanwhile, just about got over the line against Charlotte in their best-of-three series, rescuing a draw in the 12th minute of injury time in Game 3 on Saturday night before eventually prevailing on penalties.
Orlando City has lost both encounters with Atlanta this season and it is undeniable that their opponents come into this fixture with all the momentum following Saturday night’s shock win in Miami. They hope that the forthcoming international break will help to curb Atlanta’s momentum over the next two weeks.
New York Red Bulls caused the first big shock of the MLS Cup when they swept their series to knock out Columbus Crew, second seeds. However, the Red Bulls are in danger of becoming victims of their own success.
That 2-0 series victory leaves the Red Bulls with a three-week break before their trip to Citi Field to take on NYCFC in the first-ever post-season Hudson River Derby.
NYCFC, on the other hand, will be bouncing after a dramatic penalty shootout victory in Cincinnati on Saturday night.
NYCFC won both regular-season meetings between the sides this season and has not lost against any of the teams remaining in the Eastern Conference. They are arguably best-placed to go all the way in the East, especially if Atlanta wins against Orlando, which would give them home advantage in the conference final.
Atlanta undoubtedly has all the momentum following their final-day dramatics, followed by dramatic wins over Montreal and Miami. However, winning two more post-season fixtures on the road might just be a bridge too far.
NYCFC to win the Eastern Conference @ +240
The Western Conference, on the other hand, has closely followed the regular season form book so far, with LAFC and LA Galaxy seemingly on a collision course for an all-Los Angeles conference final.
Galaxy supremely dispatched Colorado Rapids in a 2-0 series sweep, winning 5-1 at home before completing the rout with a 4-1 win at Colorado. Unlike the Red Bulls, they are unlikely to be adversely affected by the three-week break considering Minnesota, their semi-final opponents, also have a three-week break after sweeping the series against Real Salt Lake. Minnesota, however, did not win a game in 90 minutes and required two penalty shootouts to progress.
LAFC, meanwhile, topped the Western Conference in the regular season but were less than inspiring against wild cards Vancouver, progressing after a 2-1 series win.
They will probably have enough to overcome Seattle Sounders in the semi-final, who swept the series against Houston Dynamo but needed penalty kicks on both occasions. LAFC beat Seattle home and away this season and should have just about enough to make it three wins from three against them with the benefit of home advantage.
LA Galaxy, on the other hand, is also undefeated against Minnesota this season and won 2-1 when the sides met in Los Angeles back in July.
Their post-season form suggests that they will have no problems repeating the same result in two weeks’ time and they should just about have what it takes to take the Western Conference. Having said that, their costly final-day defeat against Houston Dynamo means they will have to win at the home of their cross-city rivals should LAFC reach the conference final, something they have not done in the MLS since 2020.
But they were so dominant in their win over Colorado that it is hard to look beyond Galaxy in the West. The Galaxy are +180 to win the Western Conference, and +300 to win the MLS Cup.
