Mystik Dan, who won the Kentucky Derby by the closest of margins, got a huge boost in his chances to take two-thirds of the Triple Crown in this Saturday’s Preakness Stakes in Baltimore.
Muth, the Arkansas Derby winner trained by Bob Baffert who did not make the Kentucky Derby field thanks to Churchill Downs’ continued ban against the two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer, was scratched out of the Preakness Stakes Wednesday morning after spiking a fever. Muth had been the morning-line favorite off his dominant Arkansas Derby eight weeks ago, and had been considered one of the speediest horses in the field.
But with Muth now out of the way, the complexion of the Preakness completely changed Wednesday morning — and it vastly improved Mystik Dan’s chances of making the two-week turnaround from Kentucky Derby triumph to Preakness Stakes glory.
Ld by trainer Ken McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. Mystik Dan nosed out both Sierra Leone and Forever Young on May 4 in the closest Kentucky Derby finish in 28 years. Yet after the race, McPeek hedged on whether he’d enter Mystik Dan for the Preakness. In today’s thoroughbred racing climate, champion horses often do not run back within two weeks of a start.
Last year’s Preakness stakes saw just one Kentucky Derby runner, the winner Mage, make the two-week turnaround to the Preakness, where he finished fourth. In this year’s running, Mystik Dan will be joined in the field by two other Kentucky Derby runners: Catching Freedom, the fourth-place finisher, and Just Steel, who finished 17th. Seize the Gray, who won the Pat Day Mile at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard two weeks ago, will also be in the Preakness.
The 149th Preakness Stakes
Saturday, May 18
Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore
Conditions: 1 3/16 Miles, 3yo horses
Purse: $2 million
Post Time: 6:50 p.m. ET
Coverage: NBC/Peacock
The Field
How it may shake out
Muth had been considered the biggest speed threat in the Preakness Stakes, and his absence means the chances for a torrid opening pace are near-zero.
Imagination, the other Baffert horse, stands alone as the biggest front-end speed threat. Seize the Grey and Just Steel, barring a tactic change, might engage him early — but expect the fractions to be very soft.
Imagination, who finished a gutsy, but slowing second in the Santa Anita Derby, will likely attempt to win the Preakness Stakes just as another Baffert horse, National Treasure, had a year ago — wire-to-wire on slow fractions.
Without a torrid or moderate pace to target, closers like Mystik Dan will be at a disadvantage in the Preakness. Yet Mystik Dan, unlike Imagination, has always demonstrated better pound-for-pound speed; two of Mystik Dan’s last three races, including the Kentucky Derby, resulted in triple-digit Beyer speed figures. By comparison, Imagination’s only win this year, in a four-horse San Felipe Stakes back in March, resulted in a 93 Beyer, and he followed that up with a 96 Beyer in his second-place Santa Anita Derby effort.
The biggest red flag for Mystik Dan is the two-week turnaround. McPeek showed initial reluctance in committing the Derby winner to the Preakness, and with good reason — as his two previous Derby-placed runners (Tejano Run in 1995, Harlan’s Holiday in 2002) performed miserably two weeks later in the Preakness. Did the Kentucky Derby win take that much out of Mystik Dan that he won’t have enough in the tank to win the Preakness?
My guess is that it did, and this Preakness is ripe for an upset.
Have a look at Tuscan Gold; though third last out in the Louisiana Derby, he has the tactical speed to stalk from the middle of the pack and make his move in the later stages. In a race where the pace will be moderately fast, he has the best chance of having just enough to overcome Muth in the final stages.
Tuscan Gold is also coming in fresh off a long layoff for trainer Chad Brown, who took a similar tactic in training his two previous Preakness winners: Cloud Computing in 2017, and Early Voting in 2022.
Catching Freedom, also running back two weeks after the Kentucky Derby, will do his best running from further back; my concern is he may be too far off the pace to overcome the soft fractions for the victory.
My picks: Tuscan Gold (8), Mystik Dan (5), Catching Freedom (3)
