For the first time since 1969, a running of the Preakness Stakes has just one Kentucky Derby contender in the field — and it happens to be the winner, Mage.
This Saturday, Mage and jockey Javier Castellano will take to the Pimlico main track seeking to become the first horse in five years to sweep the Derby and Preakness Stakes, setting themselves up for a potential Triple Crown sweep.
On paper, it’s Mage’s race to lose. The Preakness field drawn on Monday came up remarkably soft, with no other Derby contenders entered and only one other graded stakes winner challenging Mage: Lexington Stakes champion First Mission.
But then on Friday morning, First Mission was scratched out of the Preakness due to a hind leg injury — leaving Mage with just one real threat in the race: National Treasure, the fourth-place finisher in the Santa Anita Derby, trained by Bob Baffert — who makes his return to the Triple Crown series after a two-year suspension following the positive drug test and disqualification of 2021 Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit.
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The 148th Preakness Stakes
Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, MD
Saturday, May 20
Distance: 1 3/16 Miles
Post time: 7:01 p.m. (Coverage on NBC beginning at 4:30)
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Analysis
It was hard to see a fast pace develop in the Kentucky Derby, and yet on May 6, it did. The blistering opening fractions set by Cyclone Mischief, Derma Sotogake and Reincarnate created the perfect environment for a closer like Mage to surge to victory.
Yet it’s even harder to imagine a torrid pace at the start of the Preakness on a Pimlico track that has historically played deeper and slower than Churchill Downs. There’s also little front-running speed in this field. National Treasure is a shoe-in to go to the lead, barring a disastrous beginning out of the gate. The only other horse who may engage him is Coffeewithchris.
Where does leave Mage? Castellano will probably place him much closer to the pace this time. In the Derby, he was fourth from last in the 18-horse field entering the clubhouse turn; this time, he’ll probably be near the mid-pack. First Mission, as a stalker, will probably set himself up just behind the leaders.
Velazquez will seek to control the early tempo with National Treasure, and if he gets away with a soft half-mile of 48 seconds or longer, that will not only boost his chances at wiring the field, but also make it tougher for Mage to close later.
Yet National Treasure, by Quality Road, is not a certainty to get the 1 3/16 mile Preakness distance. He was easily passed in the Santa Anita Derby by Practical Move, Mandarin Hero and Skinner; while Practical Move and Skinner were scratched out of the Kentucky Derby last out, Mandarin Hero went on to finish 12th in the race. That makes National Treasure’s Santa Anita performance look even worse.
Though a wire-to-wire effort by National Treasure is possible, we’re going to go with Mage here because in training, he hasn’t looked like he lost a step in the two-week turnaround from the Kentucky Derby.
None of his Preakness rivals have a triple-digit Beyer figure to their credit. Mage has significantly improved since his poor Fountain of Youth showing two starts out. And he could be developing into something special.
In terms of a potential longshot, take a look at Perform. The local horse, who was not nominated for the Triple Crown series, impressed in his Tesio Stakes win last month, though it was slow. His connections paid a $150,000 supplement to get him into the Preakness. That’s one hell of a gamble, and maybe he performs well enough to grab some of the purse money.
Our picks: (3) Mage, (8) First Mission, (6) Perform, (1) National Treasure
Post parade note
The lack of another Kentucky Derby challenger like Two Phil’s, Angel of Empire or even Disarm — who finished second, third and fourth to Mage, respectively — takes some of the air out of the Preakness balloon. Gone is any potential storyline of a Derby also-ran flipping the script on Mage and potentially setting up a classic showdown in the Belmont Stakes.
But can anyone really blame the owners of a Derby also-ran for not contesting the Preakness Stakes just two weeks later, in a day and age where the health and safety of equines has never been more under the microscope?
People have been debating potential changes to the Triple Crown schedule for years now. Not even the sweeps by American Pharoah and Justify in 2015 and 2018 shut the door on that debate. Those performances were the exception, and not the rule, for today’s thoroughbreds. By and large, the vast majority of champion horses now race once a month in a calendar year, sometimes even less.
The purists will need to swallow their pride and change for the better of the sport. Having a horse like Mage run against a lackluster field in the Preakness would weaken the potential accomplishment of sweeping all three races.
It’s time to space the Triple Crown out — either by moving future Preakness and Belmont Stakes runnings to the first Saturdays of June and July, respectively; or by running those races on the weekends of Memorial Day and the Fourth of July. Either way, it will ensure that most of the Kentucky Derby runners will get a chance to run in all three races, after which a real champion will emerge.
