The Baltimore Ravens have already clinched a playoff spot but they’ll try to remove the remaining postseason hopes of their rival Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) at Baltimore Ravens (10-5)
Game Details:
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD
- Time: Sunday, December 25th at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: NBC
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: BAL ML (-145), PIT ML (+122)
- SPREAD: BAL -2.5
- OVER/UNDER: 35
Preview:
Baltimore may be in the playoffs, but Pittsburgh comes into this one as the hotter team, having won five of its last seven games and possessing an admittedly slim chance to make the postseason. Meanwhile, Baltimore is just one game behind Cincinnati in the AFC North standings and the two will square off in the final week of the regular season, so Baltimore is motivated to keep winning.
They will likely try to do it again by relying on their defense. Baltimore is third in the NFL in defending the run, allowing just 87.5 yards per game, but they allow 115 yards rushing on 33 carries against the Falcons with Calais Campbell out of the lineup, so the Steelers may be able to find success behind Najee Harris, who leads the team with 843 yards rushing on the season.
The Steelers may need to have success through the air if they have any hopes of pulling this one out, but the opportunity should present itself with the Ravens ranking 24th against the pass and allowing 239.5 yards per game.
Kenny Pickett’s season-long numbers don’t look great with 2,041 with five touchdowns and nine interceptions, but he has been playing better lately and had a five-game stretch without an interception until he threw one last week against the Raiders.
Pickett will have a trio of solid weapons to throw to in the team’s leading receiver Diontae Johnson (82 catches, 809 yards), plus rookie George Pickens (47 catches, 700 yards, 3 touchdowns) and tight end Pat Friermuth (60 catches, 696 yards, 2 touchdowns).
The Steelers have also been shining on the defensive end, having held their last five opponents to 17 points or fewer. Last week against the Raiders, they forced three turnovers and held them to just 201 yards.
That defense could be tough for Baltimore to overcome since they will be forced to start Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the fourth game of the season. In his five games of action this year, Huntley has 528 yards passing, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while also fumbling three times. In his first matchup with the Steelers, he threw for 88 yards and ran for 31 more before sustaining a concussion.
Baltimore will need Huntley to step up because Pittsburgh has struggled against the pass, allowing 232.4 yards per game, which ranks 23rd in the NFL, one spot ahead of the Ravens.
Baltimore did have success on the ground in the first meeting, with JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards combining for 28 carries and 186 yards. That could be harder to do this week as Pittsburgh’s defense has found another gear with T.J. Watt healthier. Pittsburgh ranks 6th against the run, allowing 105.6 yards per game, so this game might come down to which struggling passing offense can find the most success.
Pick:
Baltimore 17 Pittsburgh 13
Player Props:
Pat Freiermuth OVER 3.5 Receptions
Freiermuth is a favorite of Kenny Pickett’s and with both teams likely needing to move the ball through this air, this could set up as a nice game for him. He has five or more targets in seven of his last eight games and is 6th among all tight ends in targets, receptions, and receiving yards this season. I think it’s fair to suspect another five-plus target game on Sunday night.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at DraftKings (-115)
Demarcus Robinson OVER 30.5 receiving yards
Robinson has gone over this total in two of his last four games and just missed in a third. That means he’s only topped this in two of the three games Huntley has started, but he has 13 targets across those three games and has at least six targets in three of his last four. Given the inconsistency in the Pittsburgh secondary, I think Robinson is a decent gamble in this one.
SPORTSBOOK: Bet at FanDuel (-114)
