Major League Baseball’s starting pitching market in free agency experienced a major shift over the weekend when the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball (Japan) revealed their intentions to post their ace, Roki Sasaki.
The 23-year-old right-hander will become the fourth major Japanese pitching talent in the last three years to make the jump to the majors, joining Kodai Senga (Mets), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Dodgers), and Shota Imanaga (Cubs).
Sasaki, however, might be the most intriguing of the group, which says a lot about the height of his ceiling.
In four professional seasons, Sasaki went 29-15 with a 2.10 ERA, 505 strikeouts, and a 0.894 WHIP.
His fastball averages between 97 and 99 mph but has touched as high as 102.5 mph. During the 2023 World Baseball Classic semifinal against Mexico, 100.5 mph.
His best pitch, however, is the splitter — a ball that leaves his hand looking like a fastball registering in the low 90s but then drops off the table with approximately 30 inches of downward break.
As Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns put it, this is a “unique talent,” which has understandably grabbed the attention of numerous major league teams.
Sasaki should, however, get pitches from every single franchise thanks to the way the Japanese posting system has been structured. Because the righty is under the age of 25, he must sign an amateur contract with whichever MLB team he agrees to a deal with.
MLB teams can only pay him with international bonus pool money, which is similar to the situation when Shohei Ohtani made the jump to the majors in 2017—he signed with the Angels for a $2.3 million bonus.
By comparison, Yamamoto was 25 when he moved from Japan last winter and signed a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers.
Sasaki’s “amateur” status will net him a maximum between a $5 million and $8 million bonus if he waits to sign with a team on or after Jan. 15, when each team’s international bonus pool money resets. He then becomes subject to MLB’s arbitration system.
This will make his availability and the 45-day negotiation block that follows his posting by his NPB club unique. It is simply not about going to the highest bidder. Instead, it is about what he values most.
That could mean he wants to be on a winning team or be the undisputed ace to spark a turnaround in a franchise’s fortunes. He could prioritize geography or joining forces with a certain talent. His motivations are unknown.
But a price tag that is just a fraction of what Sasaki is really worth should spark an all-out battle for his services from practically every team in Major League Baseball—even the penny-pinching owners who believe that it is more profitable to be a non-contending team.
