This week’s Thursday Night Football showdown features two NFC teams were are in danger of falling out of playoff contention when the New Orleans Saints travel to take on the Arizona Cardinals
New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4)
How to Watch:
- Day: Thursday, October 20th
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Channel: Amazon Prime
Betting Stats:
- MONEYLINE: ARI (-130), NO (+110)
- SPREAD: ARI -2
- OVER/UNDER: 44.5
Matchup:
The story of this game starts with Kyler Murray. The Cardinals quarterback has had a rough start to the year, throwing for 1,463 yards, with six touchdowns and four interceptions through six games. He did lose Christian Kirk to the Jaguars and DeAndre Hopkins to a suspension, but Marquise Brown had 43 catches for 485 yards, so it wasn’t as if Murray didn’t have help.
Only, now that Hopkins is set to come back from suspension, Brown will be out at least six weeks with a non-surgical fracture in his foot. The Cardinals responded by quickly trading for disgruntled receiver Robby Anderson from Carolina, so Murray will have Hopkins, Anderson, and Rondale Moore as his top three wide receivers for this week.
The Cardinals’ offensive struggles have led head coach Kliff Kingsbury to debate giving up playcalling duties. One change could probably be to get a little more aggressive on early downs.
Murray is averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt this season, and the Cardinals face so many third and longs that they are 28th in the NFL, converting on just 34% of third downs. That’s not going to sustain drives or put points up on the board, which we saw in their 19-9 loss to the Seahawks last week.
That could also be an issue against a Saints’ defense that is tied for fifth in the league in third down conversions rate and second in fourth down conversion rate.
The Saints’ defense has struggled overall, ranking 17th in yards allowed per play, 29th in the percentage of drives that end in an opponent’s score, 26th in turnover rate, and 28th in pressure rate. Theoretically, this should be a great spot for the Arizona offense.
However, the Cardinals’ offensive issues could continue with both James Conner and Darrell Williams not practicing on Tuesday. That could leave the team with just Eno Benjamin at running back, but even Benjamin was a limited participant in practice on Tuesday with a foot injury, which leaves his status in doubt.
The Saints have injury concerns of their own with cornerback Marshon Lattimore, wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, tight end Adam Trautman, and offensive guard Andrus Peat all ruled out for Thursday’s game. Quarterbacks Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston are also both battling injuries, but Dalton is expected to play through his back injury.
The good news for the Saints is that rookie receiver Chris Olave will return after missing one game with a concussion. Olave has 25 catches for 389 yards and two touchdowns in five games, only three complete ones, so far this season.
Staff Picks:
Top Player Props:
If you’re going to be betting on action besides the spread, here are three player props we like from Thursday night’s game:
Alvin Kamara over 61.5 rushing yards
We just covered above how banged up the Saints’ offense is. Having Olave back is certainly helpful, but this offense figures to run through Kamara again. Arizona is 14th in the league with 4.3 yards allowed per carry, so it’s not a smash spot for Kamara but it’s a good one, and given how involved he’ll be, I think this is a solid bet.
Where to bet: Alvin Kamara over 61.5 rushing yards | -115 at BetMGM
Juwan Johnson over 12.5 receiving yards
As we mentioned above, Adam Trautman will miss Thursday’s game, which means Juwan Johnson will be the primary target at tight end. With the collection of the wide receiver injuries we mentioned above, I think Johnson will be involved in the offense enough that he can hit the over on this prop.
Where to bet: Juwan Johnson over 12.5 receiving yards | -119 at Caesars Sportsbook
A.J. Green under 3.5 receptions
A.J. Green has not had OVER three receptions in any game this season. I think this total is inflated because of the injury to Brown, but I can’t see Green being more involved than normal now that Hopkins is back and Robby Anderson is in town. I don’t think you’ll be able to find this bet at 3.5 receptions for long, but Green doesn’t even have over 20 yards receiving in any game this season, so if he’s posted anywhere over 30+ yards, I would take the under there too.
Where to bet: A.J. Green under 3.5 receptions |-129 at Caesars Sportsbook
For more NFL coverage, like this Saints and Cardinals preview, visit amNY Sports.com
