Last week, we went 2-2 in our college football bets and after going 7-1 the weeks before, so it was a little bit of a stumble, but nothing too major in regards to our overall success of late.
We’ll be looking to get back on track and into the win column this week.
There are plenty of strong betting games on this slate, and below are my college football best bets for Week 10.
Charlotte vs Western Kentucky
I know this is a bit of a weird game to pick since neither of these teams is nationally relevant, but that can often be where you find the best value, and there is a lot of chatter about this Charlotte team right now in betting circles, so it’s time we take notice.
Charlotte fired head coach Will Healy after a 1-7 start and four straight losses, but they were competitive in a few of the recent games, losing by six to UTEP and 14 to UAB. In their first game under interim head coach Pete Rossomando Charlotte scored a touchdown on seven consecutive drives and manhandled Rice 56-23.
Charlotte has always had some talent and a decent passing game led by quarterback Chris Reynolds who has 1,799 yards and 19 touchdowns in seven games this season. Against Rice, he completed 16-of-19 passes for 254 yards and five touchdowns.
Now he’ll face a Western Kentucky team that got out to a strong start to the year thanks in part to wins over FCS Austin Peay and rebuilding Hawaii and FIU teams. The Hilltoppers are also coming off a 40-13 loss at home to North Texas last week, so there is a clear momentum and confidence edge to Charlotte.
I’m not going to go as far as to say Charlotte can win this game, but I think the spread is too high for this rejuvenated team.
Best Bet: CHA + 16.5 | FanDuel (-110)
Florida vs. Texas A&M
This is as much a bet against Texas A&M and is it a bet for Florida. The Aggies still have just two victories over FBS teams this year over two seemingly mediocre teams in Miami (FL) and Arkansas. They also would have lost that Arkansas game if it weren’t for a fluky 99-yard fumble return and the Razorbacks missing a game-winning field goal attempt.
The big key for me here is the run defense. Texas A&M has been brutal while Florida averages an FBS-leading 6.1 yards per carry. The Aggies rank outside the top 80 in Rush Success Rate and expected points added per rush. Their defensive line simply hasn’t lived up to the billing coming into the season.
While Billy Napier is on 4-4 this season at Florida, he is 3-0 against the spread as an underdog this year.
Best Bet: FLA +3.5 | BetMGM (-110)
Penn State vs. Indiana
Penn State looked good in their loss to Ohio State last week, even leading into the third quarter. Meanwhile, Indiana lost to Rutgers and is now in the midst a 5-game losing streak.
In fact, Indiana allowed Rutgers, one of the worst offenses in the Big Ten, to gain more than 300 total yards and score 24 points, the most Rutgers has scored against an FBS opponent this season. While Penn State last week scored 30+ points for the 6th time this season. So imagine what the Nittany Lions will be able to do against the Indiana defense.
If you want some historical betting stats to help you out, Indiana is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games and has gone just 2-5 in its last seven contests.
Best Bet: PSU -14 | BetMGM (-110) or PointsBet (-105)
Clemson vs. Notre Dame
I know we backed Notre Dame last week and won, but it’s time to reverse it this week.
The Fighting Irish have two 40+ point performances in back-to-back wins over UNLV and Syracuse, but I think the love on them has gone a bit too far, and this spread against Clemson is not nearly as large as it should be.
Clemson has scored 31 or more points in each of their road games this year, while home field hasn’t been too much of an advantage for Notre Dame since they lost outright to Marshall and Stanford in South Bend.
The Tigers figure to use a lot of Will Shipley in this matchup since he averages over six yards per carry and has 739 yards and 10 touchdowns on the season. He also has 56 total touches and almost 350 total yards over the last two games, so he has been a driving force for Clemson and now gets a great matchup.
The Irish defense ranks 95th in rush success rate and 99th in expected points added per rush. They are also tied with the aforementioned Rutgers at the bottom of the FBS in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score on 20 of 20 red zone possessions. On the opposite end, Clemson is 3rd in red zone offense, scoring on 38/39 trips inside the opposition’s 20-yard line, so if Clemson gets close here, they are more than likely to take advantage.
Clemson should also have a clear edge on defense since they lead the ACC in opposing yards per carry and rushing yards allowed per game. They are 16th in opposing drive efficiency, 18th in opposing touchdown rate, and 22nd in EPA per defensive play, so it’s hard to see how Notre Dame will put too many points up on the board.
Best Bet: CLEM -3.5| BetMGM (-110)
