In the heart of Big East play, Rick Pitino and St. John’s have found themselves in the heat of battle for a spot in the big dance come March. Currently projected as a No. 8 seed in Joe Lunardi’s bracketology, the Red Storm has a pivotal stretch coming up in conference play that will determine their fate.
St. John’s is currently 35th in the NET rankings, the NCAA system for weighing wins and losses against the quality of the opponent. With how stacked the Big East is this year, the Red Storm have plenty of opportunities ahead of them for Quad One victories, the highest caliber opponents in D1 basketball. Pitino and his squad have not fared well against the best of the best, as they currently hold a 2-5 record in such games.
The Johnnies’ upcoming matchup against the UConn Huskies could single-handedly push them over the brink of being a bubble team and secure their spot in March Madness. St. John’s gave the Huskies all they could handle in their first matchup, only losing by four points in Storrs. Now at the mecca on Saturday, Pitino has the chance to earn his first signature victory at the helm of the Red Storm.
St. John’s also has an opportunity to gain more quality wins and stack their tournament resume as conference play winds down. They still match up against Creighton at home, then face Marquette, Providence, Butler, and Xavier all on the road. With the Big East containing as much talent as it does, the Johnnies have plenty of chances to earn quality victories and make their resume as impressive as it can be.
Realistically, the Red Storm need to win at least three of their remaining six games against quad-one opponents to secure a guaranteed spot in March.
However, as we learned from another tri-state area team last year, the losses on your resume can impact you even more than your victories. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights ended last season as one of the first four out. They had impressive wins on their resume, including taking down a top-ranked Purdue team and a 4-7 record in quad-one games. What kept the Scarlet Knights out of the tournament was their record against quad-three opponents, with a 2-3 record. Two of those losses came to lesser opponents in conference play and were ultimately too much to overcome to clinch a berth in the tournament.
St. John’s has an even bigger threat on their schedule as they are still yet to face DePaul. DePaul is by far the worst team in the Big East and one of the worst teams overall in college basketball, being in the 300s in terms of NET ranking. This makes DePaul a quad-four opponent, which St. John’s is currently 4-0 against this year. A loss to them would be a massive blow to the Johnnies’ resume and could keep them out of the tournament entirely.
If the Johnnies want to secure their spot in the big dance, they control their density and could find themselves back at the top of the Big East in Pitino’s first year at the helm. For a team with everything ahead of them, the Red Storm could make some serious noise come March.
