On Monday, the Carolina Panthers fired head coach Matt Rhule, which immediately sparked rumors of the Bills trying to trade for Panthers’ star running back Christian McCaffrey.
Throughout the day on Monday, we got conflicting reports of the Bills reaching out to the Panthers about a deal and then the team denying that they had. In fact, the Panthers reported that they hadn’t been in contact with any team about a potential McCaffrey trade.
However, this doesn’t mean they WON’T be in trade talks, and this doesn’t mean Buffalo won’t be one of those teams. It simply means those teams didn’t talk on Monday. But we do know that Buffalo inquired about McCaffrey in the offseason, and we also know that Brandon Beane considered McCaffrey one of the best picks he made while with the Panthers, so it’s certainly plausible that he will eventually reach out to Carolina to see what it might take to acquire their star.
While everything is still obviously speculation right now, I want to lay out my case for why I think the Bills should absolutely try to trade for McCaffrey now.
1. Christian McCaffrey is a generational talent
There is no denying how good CMC is when he’s on the field. He was a backup during his rookie year in 2017 but took over the starting role in 2018. Over his first two seasons as a starter, he rushed for a combined 2,485 yards with 22 touchdowns while also piling up 1,872 yards receiving and another 10 touchdowns during those two seasons. He made one Pro Bowl and was first or second-team All-Pro in each season.
His 2,392 yards per scrimmage in 2019 led the league, as did his 19 total touchdowns. That season was the third-most yards from scrimmage of all time, behind Chris Johnson’s 2,509 yards in 2009 and Marshall Faulk’s 2,429 yards in 1999.
2. He’s not as injury prone as people think
Obviously, most people’s response to the above stats is that McCaffrey only had those three healthy seasons and then has missed the majority of the last two with injuries. While that’s true, the idea that CMC is “always hurt” is driven by recent bias and fantasy football. I should know because I drafted him first overall in two leagues last year and felt every missed game.
However, that hasn’t been the norm for his career.
McCaffrey has appeared in every game so far this season and appeared in every game during his three-year career at Stanford, which means that in six of his last eight seasons, McCaffrey has played in every single game of that season. He’s currently on track to make that seven of his last nine seasons; although, I probably just jinxed him.
The two seasons where he didn’t play a full season were due to injuries that are not related and can be chalked up to bad luck rather than a weak/brittle body. Plus, the most common narrative is that McCaffrey’s injuries could have resulted from overuse. That’s no proof that’s actually true, McCaffrey suffered his major injuries in instances where he was already well over twenty touches in that particular game or coming off a game of almost thirty touches. That certainly lends credence to that theory.
His ankle sprain in Week 2 of 2020 was on his 22nd touch of the game and then he sprained his shoulder on his 28th touch against Kansas City in Week 10 of the same year. In 2021, he suffered a strained hamstring against the Texans and then sprained his ankle in Week 12 when a defensive tackle for Miami tackled McCaffrey in a way that his left ankle rolled underneath him.
Notice how only one of those issues is a “soft tissue” type injury that would indicate a concern for re-injury. Most of the injuries are impact injuries or unlucky ankle sprains. Coming to Buffalo could then be perfect for McCaffrey’s alleged injury issues because they are not going to use him as a 20+ carry bellcow with Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs on the team, which means any concerns about overuse or repeated trauma can be tossed aside.
3. His Contract is cheap
You may read that and do a double-take, but it’s true. Greg Tompsett from Cover 1 did a great breakdown of the math, so I’ll just embed his tweets here so you can see what we’re talking about.
The crazy part is, the structuring of Christian McCaffrey’s contract means the acquiring team only takes on the prorated amount of $1.035M salary #BillsMafia could absolutely acquire and then release/restructure in the spring (none of the 3 yrs $36M remaining is guaranteed)
— Greg Cover 1 🏈 (@GregTompsett) October 10, 2022
$1M of his remaining 3 yrs $36M contract is guaranteed. So either they release with no harm or Beane has all the leverage in a team friendly restructure
— Greg Cover 1 🏈 (@GregTompsett) October 10, 2022
The prorated $1.035M deal means that the number of games McCaffrey hypothetically plays for the Bills determines the total. That deal is prorated over the full season, so McCaffrey would cost roughly $60,882 per game he suits up for Buffalo. If they traded for him before the Chiefs game (which is highly unlikely), and he played 12 games for the team, he would cost $730,588 for the season. Playing 11 games would mean he costs $669,705, 10 games would cost $608,823, etc.
So you’re telling me the Bills could get McCaffrey for $700K and then either re-sign him at a team-friendly rate or move on in the off-season with only a $1M hit? That’s an easy yes 10 times out of 10, especially since Devin Singletary is a free agent at the end of the year, so the Bills would likely be looking to add a running back later. Singletary’s current market value is $5.3M per season, so it’s feasible that re-signing him isn’t actually that much cheaper than bringing CMC back on a restructure from his current $12M per season deal.
But what about the trade price?
4. A trade might not cost more than a couple of day-two picks
Obviously, this is also speculative, but the Panthers were asking for one first-round pick and a cap-friendly player back in March, so there is some speculation that a mid-season trade for McCaffrey in the midst of a rebuild would cost less.
As Pro Football Rumors points out, running backs don’t often fetch a lot on the trade market and “the only back to be traded for even a third-round pick over the past eight years was Duke Johnson, who fetched a third-rounder in going from the Browns to the Texans in 2019.”
CMC is better than Duke Johnson, but even a trade that is significantly more than Duke Johnson might just consist of multiple day-two draft picks.
Draft picks matter and the Bills have done well with their picks in the past, so we don’t want to just write this off. However, losing day two picks in order to drastically increase your chances of winning a championship is a risk you have to take.
5. It doesn’t matter if the Bills don’t run
I’ve seen a lot of chatter online that the Bills shouldn’t pay a hefty price for McCaffrey because they don’t, or can’t, run the football.
Well, first of all, it’s not a hefty price, which we covered above. Second, the Bills do still run. They haven’t been good at it so far, but McCaffrey is more elusive than Singletary and would be a better fit behind an offensive line that isn’t elite at run blocking.
On the season, McCaffrey has a 19.4% broken tackle rate, a 79.2% positive run rate, and earns 3.3 yards on average after contact, which is 74.1% of his yards. All of those metrics are 79th-percentile or better.
For comparison sake, Devin Singletary jas a 12.5% broken tackle rate, 77.5% positive run rate, and earns 2.3 yards on average after contact, which is 53.8% of his yards. Only the positive run rate is better than 49th-percentile in the league.
Those numbers just drastically favor CMC, and it’s not particularly close.
Also, Buffalo has been very open about using their short passing game as a running game. It’s become far more prevalent in today’s NFL and makes sense when you think of the way Buffalo is able to gain consistent yardage in the short passing game in the way one would hope to in a running game. It’s also already been proven that running the football well isn’t necessary for having a strong play-action passing attack, so the idea that Buffalo needs to run better to help their play-action is not correct.
So if Buffalo is going to keep using the short passing game then CMC is the best fit imaginable since he’s one of the best receiving backs in the recent history of the league.
6. Adding McCaffrey is good for Josh Allen’s health
The Bills have an issue in short-yardage situations and salting away the game with the run. As a result, they use Josh Allen in late games that aren’t close way more than they should. Given CMC’s success in earning yardage after contact during his career, his presence on the team would mean the Bills can save Allen from taking unnecessary hits late in the game and that’s a win for everybody.
At the end of the day, it’s unclear if the Panthers are ready to go with a full-on rebuild, but if they are and Christian McCaffrey can be had in a trade, it makes all the sense in the world for Buffalo to try and make a move. It could be the final piece that helps led them to that ever-elusive Super Bowl title.
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