With each passing day of Pete Alonso and the New York Mets’ stalemate, it seems as though the whispers linking Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Queens grows stronger.
The Mets’ situation at first base remains unresolved as we are officially in the latter portions of Major League Baseball’s offseason.
Alonso seems willing to yield dreams of a long-term contract to sign a three-year deal with the Mets, which includes opt-outs, but president of baseball operations David Stearns’ needs are obviously not being met or else there would have been significant progress between the two parties over the last week.
There are some factions of the internet that believes progress with Alonso is being held up because the Mets are gunning for Guerrero to potentially take over as the franchise’s first baseman of the future.
Such wishes from fans are understandable.
Guerrero is five years younger than Alonso, has had two seasons of a 6-plus WAR in the last four years (Alonso has never had a 6-WAR season), and has slashed .293/.370/.517 (.887 OPS) with averages of 34 home runs and 101 RBI since the start of the 2021 campaign. He has also been remarkably reliable, appearing in 636 of a possible 648 games over the last four seasons.
There is no other way to parse it: Guerrero is a superstar who, like newest Met Juan Soto, is entering his prime.
The 2025 season is also a contract year for him, as free agency looms next winter. He and the Toronto Blue Jays got nowhere on long-term extension talks and while they avoided arbitration, trade rumors have only strengthened in recent weeks.
If Guerrero tells the organization that he will not negotiate with them during the season and will hit the open market, it increases the likelihood of a late-offseason or spring training blockbuster. Even if the Blue Jays have an inkling that he will walk in free agency, they have to maximize his value — and dealing him before the season as opposed to the trade deadline as a half-season rental makes a difference in a potential return.
Of course, it still might not coax a king’s ransom out of an interested suitor, considering Guerrero is still in search of a long-term contract that is projected to pay him over $400 million.
As has become customary in the Steve Cohen era, it has made the Mets a logical potential fit. They have not been shy to flash cash to secure big-name stars, and Guerrero does provide a significant upgrade over the homegrown and fan-favorite Alonso, which is something that still holds value these days.
As SNY’s Andy Martino reported, the Mets checked in with the Blue Jays on Guerrero’s potential availability, but it was noted that a blockbuster that brings the first baseman from Canada to Queens “remains in the realm of fantasy baseball.”
Just hours later, a report from former Chicago Cubs analyst Mike Rodriguez claimed that the Mets were “trying to put together a package” for Guerrero. There has been nothing else that has surfaced to suggest that is happening.
While Guerrero would obviously supply stability at first base if he were to be acquired by the Mets and sign a long-term deal with the team, Stearns would likely have to empty the upper tiers of his farm system, which is something he has been reluctant to do while he and Cohen attempt to continue building self-sustainability.
Coughing up a steep price would also be counterproductive if the Mets have a chance to simply sign him without parting with valuable assets next winter. In the meantime, they can either work out a deal with Alonso that includes an opt-out after the 2025 season, or shift Mark Vientos to first base and hold an internal competition in spring training to address third base.
